A SLOW AND STEADY RISE

Rather peasant weather persists across the Midwest this Sunday, although with some wildfire smoke keeping air quality sub-par. Temperature anomalies will remain below-normal through about the Wednesday/Thursday time frame before we start to see things trend warmer next weekend into early next week. It is August after all, it's hard to keep the heat away.

Historically for the Quad Cities we are passed the hottest average month of the year (July), but August is the second-hottest by a pretty close margin. Don't get too used to the cooler temperatures.

Looking at the blend of models, the trend is certainly up and away as we go through the week into the weekend. Highs back in the 90s are looking likely, and this will be accompanied by higher humidity pushing heat indices towards rough levels.

The upper air pattern will transition to a central US ridge which will not only allow the heat to build, but bring a return to the 'Ring of Fire' that will usher in more active weather to the region as well. Most models at this point are not particularly excited about the prospects of storms across Iowa and Illinois late this weekend but the overall pattern likely will fester some action.

The European Ensemble does indicate some precipitation across the region Thursday to kick off the pattern transition. It's a rather noisy signal for the time being but it's at least something to talk about on an otherwise quiet stretch of weather.

Hot off the press is the American ensemble, the GEFS, which has made a more aggressive trend towards above-normal precipitation across the Midwest late this week into the weekend. This is more along the lines of what I would expect to occur given the pattern taking shape across the region and might be the beginning of models getting a better handle on the situation.

For example, the European Ensemble which was run midday Saturday shows the below-normal precipitation across Iowa, Illinois and Missouri. We will have to see if the European models trend towards the American GEFS or not. I suspect they will.

As with any 'Ring of Fire' setup, severe weather is on the table but confidence is limited on timing and placement at this point in time. Just something to think about for the time being.

Meanwhile, we had liftoff of Crew 11! I had the pleasure to be watching alongside friends of NASA Astronaut Michael Fincke, callsign Spanky, as they watched him leave the planet on a launch Friday afternoon. What an awesome afternoon on the Florida Space Coast with the weather barely cooperating! Fincke, joined by two other astronauts and a cosmonaut from the USA, Japan and Russia will spend the next more than half a year aboard the International Space Station.

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart