A STORMY SOAKER LOOMING

Quiet weather dominated by hazy, smoky conditions will persist Monday before we finally see an uptick in the rain and storm threat this week. Guidance continues to show a rather active stretch Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread rainfall totals likely pushing greater than 1". The latest blend of models across the central US show 1"+ roughly across the Great Lakes and Midwest with the heaviest totals looking likely for Missouri and western Illinois.

PROBABILITY OF 1"

PROBABILITY OF 2"

Probabilities of at least 1" of rain through Wednesday are well over 60% for a large chunk of the area. The probabilities of 2" are substantially locally but are approaching 20% for areas just south of the area. This will come in the form of thunderstorms, some strong to severe, especially on Tuesday.

A Level 2 of 5 Risk, a Slight Risk, extends from roughly Fond du Lac, Wisconsin to Abilene, Texas Tuesday including the Quad Cities area. The overall risk looks somewhat limited given poorer instability expected locally but there may be a few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

HRRR

NAM 3K

WRF-ARW

Convective models are in very good agreement with the overall placement and timing of thunderstorms across the region. Notice the various models have isolated hail cores and boing segments. Again this is mainly indicating the isolated threat of strong wind gusts and large hail in the late afternoon and evening hours. Some strong storm threat may linger into the overnight hours to Wednesday morning.

Precipitable water values will be quite high relative to climatology with values in excess of 1.75". This is in the 97.5th percentile which is a strong signal for rather heavy rain. The event will be rather progressive in nature, meaning storms don't train over the same areas over and over again for a prolonged period, limiting any widespread flood threat. With that said small creeks and urban areas could see localized flooding with the heaviest rainfall.

Following the rain threat Tuesday into Wednesday there are lingering rain chances at the end of the week but the confidence is limited in the timing and scope at this point in time. I think it looks like Thursday into Friday there is bit of a signal for a storm system in the region to watch.

The European Ensemble keeps the bulk of the rain and storm track to the south from the Southern Plains to the Northeast. If this system gets a bit stronger this would put the area back in line for another round of heavier rainfall and potentially severe weather. Remains a watch item as we go through the week. I would not be shocked if this trended north with time.

In terms of temperatures we have a warm day Monday with highs well into the 80s. Ahead of the storms Tuesday we should remain in the 80s as well. Behind the cold front leading to storms Tuesday we cool off Wednesday with highs only in the low 70s with lingering clouds and spotty showers.

That will wrap it up for today! Have a great week everyone,

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart