A WINTER WONDERLAND

terryswails1
33 minutes ago
4 min read

After the big weekend storm and the little dust up we had Monday, it's looking like a winter wonderland around most of the Midwest. I realize there's a large percentage of you who don't appreciate the snow. I however, was thrilled to pick up 14 inches of white gold at my place in Dubuque. And I will say, if there is one redeeming aspect to snow, it's that Christmas lights look 10 times better in a mantel of white. I'm old-fashioned and sentimental about that.

Something else I will point out is that the 14 inches at my place, is close to what we had for the entire winter last year, which a believe was around 17 inches, and it's only December 1st. We also, (along with Cedar Rapids) set the record for the all-time greatest single day snow for the month of November. Here's a recap of weekend snowfall totals.

You can also see how widespread the heavy snow was. Every place in yellow had at least 6 inches, with the majority of my area raking in 10–14 inches.

Amounts from Monday's system were generally 1–2 inches in my southeast counties. Totals were heavier in Missouri, especially around Kansas City, where my daughter Eden measured 5 inches.

By the way, over the past 3 days, this is the snow that's fallen around the nation.

If you go back to November 17th, only 5 percent of the lower 48 had snow cover.

Today, (2 weeks later) that number jumped to 33 percent, but that was before the swath of snow that hit Kansas, northern Missouri. southern Iowa, and parts of the northern half of Illinois, were taken into consideration. That number is now most likely over 40 percent. Quite a change from the 5 percent threshold 2 weeks ago.

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ARCTIC AIR, WEDNESDAY NIGHT

Now that a healthy snow pack is covering the Midwest, it sets the table for what should be a lengthy stretch of temperatures that are below to much below normal, especially with the days about as short as they get. The ensembles of the EURO shows this for temperature departures the next 7 days, (December 1st to the 8th). Below that, you can also see the amplified NW flow that delivers the chill.

Week 2, the 7-day departures are not as extreme with the mean flow at 500mb less amplified and the ridge off the west coast and Alaska chipped back. Here's the week 2, 7 day temperature departures for the 9th to the 16th.

Here's the less amplified flow at 500mb week 2 that will modify the temperatures.

In fact, it's possible we get a pretty good warm-up around December 14th before the ridge can re-amplify and allow the cold to attack again. Models are struggling with the fast flow in the Pacific and how it impacts energy and blocking.

Short term, one thing I certainly don't see much of is snow or precipitation through the remainder of the week and the day Saturday, with high pressure ruling the roost. There is a respectable clipper shown diving southeast Saturday night and early Sunday that does have the potential to deliver some snow at that time. However, the track between the EURO and GFS are not yet in sync, so confidence is low on impacts. The SW half of my area is currently in the best position to see accumulating snow.

Meantime, Tuesday looks like a fresh day despite winds switching to the southwest and getting rather blustery in the afternoon. Highs will most likely remain in the low to mid 20s.

Wednesday we start mild with highs reaching 29 north to 33 or 34 in the south before an Arctic front hits, sending temperatures tumbling. A few snow showers could attend the front, but strong winds and falling temperatures will be its true calling card.

By daybreak Thursday, lows have free-fallen into the range of 5 to 13 below zero.

There will be enough wind to generate wind chills of 15 to 22 below zero.

Highs Thursday afternoon will struggle to get out of the single digits.

For perspective, highs like that are as much as 38 degrees below normal. That's what Arctic air and a deep snow cover have the capability of doing at this time of year.

After lows below zero Friday morning, temperatures should recover into the upper teens to low 20s. A step in the right direction that could get us back into the upper 20s north to low 30s Saturday. Then we watch to see what the clipper does Saturday night, when at least a part of the area could see some snow.

Here's hoping you like the winter wonderland we are living in now because it's not going away anytime soon. Roll weather...TS.