A STRONG MAY COLD FRONT APPROACHES

Monday will be a very warm one across the Midwest ahead of a potent cold front that will send temperatures tumbling through the rest of the week. Highs Monday will push into the low 80s for most under sunny skies and breezy southwest wind gusts.

As the cold front sweeps through there may be a few spotty showers, but the highest chance for appreciable rain will be the southeast based on the evening model guidance. Still, given the strong upper air support with the cold front, any stronger shower and thunderstorm will be capable of gusty winds, potentially reaching severe limits.

A Level 1 of 5 Risk, a Marginal Risk, is in place for the entire region. The primary concerns will be large hail and strong wind gusts. Overall it's a limited threat but a few storms again could be on the stronger side here and there.

The latest severe weather ensemble forecast has the highest chances for robust updrafts to the south and southeast late Monday evening. Again, chances locally are limited but it remains worth watching. If the cold front is a little slower than forecast this would put our area more at risk.

Following Monday's warmth temperatures fall rather dramatically. Tuesday and Wednesday may remain just in the 50s for high temperatures with lows in the low 40s/upper 30s. The coolest air is likely Thursday morning with the risk for frost in low-lying areas.

Late in the week we should start warming back into the mid/upper 70s into more seasonal levels.

Following the rain chances Monday we likely enter a prolonged stretch of quiet weather. Precipitation anomalies on the American GEFS show totals through May 14 below normal across the Upper Midwest. Ridging that builds in will keep the pattern in check for some time. This will allow temperatures to moderate and the pattern to dry out.

Not much to talk about weather wise for some time locally! Enjoy it. Also please keep Terry in your thoughts today as he has his procedure Monday morning.

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart