A SUMMERY SURGE...
Winds returned to the south for the first time in nearly a week and the results were obvious with warmer temperatures and a surge in humidity Wednesday. The dog days are back and will be with us into next week. Below you can see the big high that brought the summery reprieve is well to the east allowing a healthy return flow.
Moisture will steadily increase the next 48 hours which is evident in the high water vapor levels shown Friday night on the EURO.
Dew points will also climb near or above the 70 degree threshold which will make for some muggy conditions. Fortunately, they won't be quite as high as the last burst of heat when they reached 80 for a couple of days.
With the warm humid air will come instability which means a chance of thunderstorms Friday night or early Saturday. However, cape is not excessive and the timing of the front/forcing is less than optimal in my region (near daybreak Saturday). That's a detriment to widespread significant rains but there should at least be scattered showers and storms. Below is the forecast cape on the EURO.
With the front passing Saturday winds will go back to the NW sending drier air in Saturday afternoon and much of Sunday. The dew points go from the 70s early Saturday to the 50s Sunday morning. Far more comfortable.
In general, the majority of Saturday and Sunday looks good with mild temperatures and sunshine prevailing once any lingering showers depart early Saturday morning.
Sunday night another slug of warm advection will quickly replace the dry air with lift and moisture. The GFS tries to conjure up an MCS which dumps heavy rain on the northern half of my area. The EURO is further north and barely clips my counties up around HWY 20 with light amounts. You can see the difference in rainfall between the two solutions below.
The EURO control
If that doesn't work out, well there's another opportunity next Tuesday night with the arrival of another cold front. In all honesty the pattern looks pretty active. In fact, if the GFS has its way the part of my area that really needs rain would get it. Here's what it shows for total precipitation Friday through Wednesday of next week.
As good as that looks, I am in no way on board with the idea in any specific area. I think the potential is real but (where) is the million dollar question. I have said on multiple occasions that in times of drought signs of precipitation don't pan out. Will this be the event that breaks the cycle of dryness in my central and northern counties? I certainly would not hold my breath, especially at this distance. However, it's a trend that's well worth watching in the days ahead! Here's hoping the GFS is on its game!
We also talked yesterday about the potential of a couple steamy days early next week. Models have been vacillating run to run but continue to show the potential for noteworthy heat Monday and Tuesday. 24 hours ago the GFS showed highs next Tuesday pushing 100. The Wednesday night run of the GFS (0z) remains on the bandwagon after jumping off it in previous runs earlier in the day.
The EURO is not as hot but still indicates highs in the low to mid 90s. The one issue that could alter the scenario is if there are storms or convective debris that would temper the heat.
To sum it all up, there's a little of everything on the table the next 7 days which will make for much more interesting times than what we've experienced here lately. As always, when convection is involved mesoscale details that are difficult to see will play important roles in how things unfold. The potential for busts are there, especially Sunday night through Wednesday of next week. Time for me to buckle up! Roll weather.....TS