A TONED-DOWN SEVERE WEATHER YEAR

Nick continues to sail the Caribbean on a cruise with his wife Mary. Due to concerns with internet coverage, he packaged a couple of special pieces designed to give me a break and you something interesting to read and learn from. Here's his latest edition based on this year's severe weather season. Here's hoping they are enjoying temperatures in the 80s, using plenty of sunscreen. As for me, I will be back in the saddle tomorrow. TS

A TONED DOWN SEVERE WEATHER YEAR

After a record-breaking 2024 in terms of tornadoes across Iowa, 2025 thus far has been a much more toned-down severe weather year through early November. Officially, the tornado count for the state of Iowa currently stands at 36. There were 124 in Iowa in 2024 - the most by a rather large range.

Illinois has had more activity, especially across central and southern portions of the state, with 136 confirmed through early November.

Looking at the last 20 years, we have been running below the mean all year long. After an exceptionally quiet start to the season through mid-April, the season become a bit more active after that.

If you recall, we did have an extreme tornado year in 2023, especially considering the early-year tornado outbreak on March 31. Iowa tallied 72 tornadoes in 2023 with a good chunk during that specific event.

What is quite fascinating is the fact there are areas in eastern Iowa that have not had a single tornado watch all year, especially along/north of Highway 20. There was only one tornado watch to include Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, with two tornado watches affecting the Quad Cities.

For some context, last year much of the area was under at least 4-5 tornado watches at some point in the year, with a localized bullseye centered on the Quad Cities.

While the tornado count was down significantly from last year, we did see our fair share of damaging wind events, albeit still lower than last year. Across Iowa, 453 damaging wind reports have been noted in 2025, which is down from 659 in 2024, but up from 294 in 2023. Without a doubt, 2023 will be remembered for one day, the March 31 tornado outbreak which was the first time the Storm Prediction Center issued a high risk outlook and a particularly dangerous (PDS) tornado watch for any part of Iowa during the month of March.

The total number of severe thunderstorm watches issued locally was 3-5 in 2025, depending on where you were. This is pretty in line with 2024. What is somewhat fascinating regarding the map above, is the complete lack of severe weather watches across central Illinois, which is pretty remarkable.

Looking ahead through the remainder of November, the historical probabilities of severe weather continue to shift farther and farther south as local chances of severe weather dip well below 1% based on climatology.

Against the odds, we have had our fair share of severe weather events late in the season the last few years, so we are certainly not out of the woods yet. The December 15, 2021, derecho stands out as a remarkable late season severe weather event setting an all-time record for the most tornadoes in a single day for any month of the year, with 63 twisters confirmed across the state. This event marked the first time a serial derecho occurred in December anywhere in the United States. We also had tornadoes a few days before Christmas in 2015.

It's not over until it's over, but so far 2025, can be characterized as a much-needed quieter year of severe weather compared to previous years

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart