AIMING HIGH, IT'S ABOUT TIME...

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AIMING HIGH...

Right out of the gate, let me take you to the 6-10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Lo and behold we have high probabilities (80-90%), of seeing above normal temperatures around the region (and the corn belt as a whole) next week.

This is a big deal as the past 30 days have looked like this. Not only has there been no prolonged warmth, the period has been filled with significant storms and above normal precipitation, some of it snow. So, a nice, mild, dry stretch of weather would certainly be welcome. Some green in my yard and leaves on the trees would also be appreciated.

While some spots in the south have seen 70 degrees and above, I have not here in Dubuque. However, my time is coming (along with everyone else's) with the EURO indicating highs around 70 as soon as Monday. The warming trend continues to strengthen into next week with the EURO ensemble showing at least low chances of highs in the 80s next Wednesday April 13th.

The deterministic (or operational EURO), actually goes the distance suggesting 80 degree highs April 13th. It even has 90s in SW Iowa. While I think the potential is there to reach 80, I'm not convinced we get above the mid 70s. Even so, that would work just fine. I'll follow up on this trend in my next post.

It remains to be seen if this trend holds up but the GFS has no rain falling over the next 8 days. Here's what it shows for precipitation April 6th-13th.

Going a step further, CPC's 8-14 day period ending April 19th continues to show high chances of above normal temperatures.

By April 15th, normal highs range from 62 south to 57 far north.

Of note in the 8-14 day outlook above, rain chances begin to increase again as it appears we may be reverting back to that active pattern we've seen the past couple of months with the mean trough centered over the west. The 500mb jet on the GFS looks like this April 20th. That SW flow would ensure deep moisture returns to the Midwest. It also has a classic severe weather look for the central U.S. assuming the set-up develops as shown.

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MISSISSIPPI RIVER RISING...

I will also make a mention for those of you with interests in the Mississippi that the spring snow melt is likely to get underway over the upper Midwest next week as warm air returns to even the upper Midwest. A deep snow pack remains on place with significant moisture content of 2 to 6 inches in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin.

The combination of a rapid thaw and heavy rainfall would set the stage for significant flooding on much of the Mississippi south of St. Paul. Models have not yet converged on the rainfall potential so there is hope that specific ingredient may fail to materialize. The river is already on the rise but it would likely be late April before a major crest (still not a sure thing) would occur. Unknowns remain but the process is about to begin. More to come.

Meantime, we have plenty of sunshine in the forecast the rest of the week and Easter weekend. Thursday will be another chilly day with highs only in the upper 40s and low 50s. By Friday we head for the mid to upper 50s, low 60s Saturday, and mid to upper 60s Easter Sunday. There's that saying if you build it they will come. Let's hope the build up leads to even better things next week. I like our odds. Roll weather...TS