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ALL WORN OUT...

As expected, Wednesday was one of those rare spring days with sunshine and no rain. The atmosphere finally wore itself out. I showed you yesterday how since March 1st, we've had at least a trace of rain 46 out of 90 days (roughly 50 percent of the time). Based on that 90-day period, my counties in eastern Iowa are having either their 4th, 6th, or 8th wettest spring (March-May) in 132 years of record. Top 10% wettest or less.

Just as impressive is the fact much of the central U.S. is absorbing abundant rains. SE Wisconsin is having its wettest spring on record.


Despite all the wet weather, which can often lead to cool weather in spring, you can see since February the majority of our temperatures have been above to well above average. You can tell by all the spikes above the red and blue lines representing the climatological norms.


It won't happen for close to a week, but I am seeing signs that, at least for a time, the wet and mild pattern may break to a dry and cooler one. This is the mean 500mb flow on the EURO ensemble, June 9th. Notice the significant ridge in red that is going up over British Columbia. That promotes a downstream trough over the Great Lakes. Our air masses would then be originating from Canada. If this was January, that would deliver some harsh cold.

Fortunately, the days are long and the sun strong now, so the effects are muted. However, the 7-day week two temperature departures are still well below normal. This is what the EURO shows June 6th-13th.

Sure enough, The Climate Prediction Center is seeing the pattern, showing temperatures in the 8-15 day period that are well below normal directly over the central Midwest, just like the EURO is indicating.


With the NW flow that's shown at that point, we won't need to worry about heat or humidity. This is likely to crush the active pattern we've been in, shutting down heavy precipitation and the onslaught of severe weather the central U.S. has dealt with recently. Over the next 2 weeks (especially the 2nd week), both the EURO and GFS indicate below normal precipitation. If that ridge develops as shown, this is a very plausible scenario. Here are the rainfall anomalies that are shown through June 12th.


The EURO

The GFS

Before the transition, there are still some rain chances to come into early next week, but we remain in the clear Thursday. After a crisp start, a stunning day is anticipated, with mild temperatures in the low to mid 70s under sunny skies.


Friday will also be a dry, but clouds will begin to increase as the day wears on. This is due to the approach of another disturbance swinging in from the west. As I've been noting the past couple of days, models have really been struggling with the amount of precipitation and its location when the core of the system arrives Friday night and early Saturday. There is a lot of dry air to overcome, and it looks to me like the best forcing will be to the south in Missouri and central Illinois. The EURO now brings only a few showers, mainly Saturday. The GFS, which has been up and down, swipes my SE counties with a decent rain. I think the GFS is over developed and too far north with the surface low it generates in Missouri. That forces heavier rains into the SE, and I doubt that depiction. I am leaning heavily on the drier EURO. Here's what each are showing for rain totals. We'll see what tomorrow's runs bring.


The EURO

The GFS


Highs on Saturday may be tempered some by periods of passing clouds, but I think mid 70s seem reasonable in most spots.


Sunday through Tuesday, warmer and more humid air will settle into the region, bringing highs into the realm of 80 to 85. With additional moisture brought on by dew points in the mid 60s, there may be some widely scattered showers and storms Monday, but they look few and far between with limited forcing. With a front approaching late Monday afternoon and evening, rain chances should increase some. The front looks to wash out and hang around Tuesday, with a few more widely scattered showers and storms. Finally, the big push of cool air enters the picture Tuesday night. That may be preceded by some active storms, and then a healthy cool down commences Wednesday night and Thursday. That should be followed by several days to a week of relatively cool, dry conditions.


A lovely May day is knocking, be sure to let it into your life. Roll weather...TS

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