AND THEN IT WAS SUMMER

The passage of a warm front and strong compressional heating opened the door to the furnace Wednesday. Some spots locally had their first 90 degree highs of the year, and Waterloo soared to a reading of 96 degrees. Monticello and Vinton both hit 95 and Lowden clocked in with a 94.

One of the factors that allowed the strong warm-up was relatively dry air. Some places (Lowden for example) saw humidity values as low a 28-30 percent. The drier the air, the more it can heat, and up we went.

Late in the day, the northern fringe of the heat became the focus for thunderstorms across northern Iowa. Here, where moisture was pooled the CAP was breached, allowing convective development near and north of HWY 20. These are the storms that followed at mid-evening on the GOES satellite imagery. Some gusts up to 50 were found around Cedar Falls and Waterloo.

With a rather stagnant set of dynamics, the front is likely to move little overnight. Additionally, instability will wane and without much of a low level jet, the storms should at best only clip my northern counties before they fizzle out after midnight. The bottom line is that the majority of the rain overnight should only clip the northern fringes of my area, and most spots will end up rain free. As of 2:00 a.m. Doppler rain estimates have come in like this.

Thursday morning, the outflow from storm remnants may force the front as far south as I-80 around daybreak, where it grinds to a halt. As the day's heating takes place, enough moisture and temperatures in the range of 85 to 90 will build some instability as evidenced by CAPE up to 1700 j/kg in the north near the boundary.

As a result, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and evening, most numerous north of I-80. The simulated radar at 7:00 p.m. shows about 20-30 percent coverage of the storms. In other words, they should be hit-and-miss and at least 70 percent of my region stays dry. Humidity will be higher, making for muggier conditions.

Friday, and now it appears much of the weekend, the stationary front will be content to meander around the central Midwest. This further northward trend means two things, we stay warm in the low to mid 80s, and there will be chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. In general, these will just be pulse storms that are widely scattered and hit-and-miss. Where they form, some quick beneficial downpours may occur, but at best only 30 to perhaps 40 percent of the area sees them on a given day. In other words, much of Friday through Sunday will be summery, with only brief hit-and-miss afternoon or evening storms. Lots of dry hours. This is what the EURO and GFS show for rain Thursday afternoon through Sunday.

The EURO

The GFS

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A SUMMERY PATTERN TAKES HOLD...

Next week, ridging begins to build across the southern tier of the nation, which leads the Midwest into what appears to be a summery pattern with the potential for active thunderstorms close by.

At this point, the ring of fire is shown setting up close to my area (probably just a hair north) next week. What does that mean? From the standpoint of temperatures, that should produce above normal readings around 85-90. The real extreme heat of 95-100 holds further south. Here's what the meteograms of the EURO and GFS look like the next 2 weeks.

The EURO

The GFS

With regard to precipitation, it's the upper Midwest that sees multiple rounds of thunderstorms and the lions share of the rainfall. My northern counties may get in on some of this, but as you can see, there is a strong signal for below normal rains from I-80 south where heat CAPS the atmosphere. The upper Midwest (Minnesota and Wisconsin) look vulnerable to excessive rains, with both showing bullseyes of at least 6 inches plus over the period.

The EURO

The GFS

In closing, I will add, that a minimal 150 to 200 mile shift north or south in the baroclinic boundary next week could mean a significantly hotter drier solution or substantially cooler, wetter conditions. It will take a few more days for guidance to settle on a higher confidence solution.

Meantime, it sure looks like we are going to jump into summer and see all the elements it has to offer, good and bad. Have a strong day and roll weather...TS