BACK TO THE STORMS, BRIEFLY

After a very brief break from some of the intense heat and daily storm chances we are right back into the action with another risk of scattered severe storms and high heat and humidity in the Midwest. A Level 2 of 5 risk, a slight risk, is in place across much of the region from the UP of Michigan to northern Kansas. Damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms remains the main concern with any storms that develop Sunday evening and night.

The high resolution models are locked in on storms moving through the region this evening with pretty much every model favoring thunderstorms development as early as 2-3p.m. and spreading east-southeast.

The HRRR model develops these storms across eastern Iowa to central Wisconsin in a scattered nature this evening. The good news is they are generally going to be more spotty in nature meaning it shouldn't turn into another night of significant rainfall for the region which could further complicate any river rises.

Following this wave of storms things will actually really slow down a bit giving us an extended break from the rain and storms. Today's/tonight's storms really won't add up to too much for most of the area. WPC forecasts have less than a half inch for most of Iowa and northern Illinois with the heavier rain likely remaining south of the area.

An extended look at the European Ensemble actually shows some below-normal precipitation for a change over the next week. The pattern will give us some time to dry out, but there are signals we will likely go back to an active pattern come next week. That's a little far out to get too focused on for now, but I am watching those trends carefully.

The short-term turn so some drier weather is in part to the fact the 'Ring of Fire' will shift farther north out of our area. The active storm track will likely start hitting the US/Canada border region pretty hard over the Great Lakes. So, while the storm threat tappers off a bit, the heat will not as we will noy be under the heat dome.

Forecast temperatures will continue to climb this week, likely well into the 90s come the Fourth of July. Those outdoor plans are leaning towards being mostly dry, but you'll need the shade and time to cool off.

One potential hiccup when it comes to Fourth plans will be a weak shortwave that is showing up in the models tonight. A weak disturbance is looking to pass through the region which may be just enough to initiate some thunderstorms in a hot and humid airmass.

The 24-hour precipitation forecast on the European Ensemble looks to keep the main thrust of storms to the west of the Q.C. region, but this will be an area to watch going forward.

Meanwhile here on the Florida Space Coast, the rockets keep flying! Very bust week with both launches and weather issues. Here's is Friday night's SpaceX Starlink launch flying into a thick cloud deck above the spaceport after a day of thunderstorms. Have a great rest of the weekend everyone!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart