BIG CHANGES ARE A COMING

Another round of intense heat and humidity is coming to an end as we speak. Conditions this weekend were as bad as any we have seen all summer, especially in the south, where the heat index for 3 consecutive days reached 105-110 plus. Steve Gottschalk of Lowden, Iowa (an NWS cooperative observer for decades) reported his heat index at 115 Saturday, 111 Sunday, and 107 Monday. All three days, the dew point reached 80, reaching a high of 81 Saturday.

One of the positive aspects of the heat was that it was situated just far enough north to keep a CAP on the atmosphere locally, thwarting storm development. As a result, the heaviest rains fell over far northern Iowa into southern Minnesota. That was a blessing, with 3 day rainfall totals up to 9 inches reported near Mankato. Minnesota. The weekend before, it was Milwaukee that was hammered with an incredible 15 inches measured there.

Below are Doppler rainfall estimates since last Friday, showing a 4-8+ swath running from Minnesota into NE Iowa. 150 miles further southeast, and that would have been very problematic locally.

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BREAKING THE BACK OF SUMMER

Finally, Tuesday, the back of the latest heat dome is broken with the passage of a cold front. Northerly flow begins to take hold, reducing temperatures and humidity areawide. Water vapor which was well over 2 inches Monday goes to levels as low as .75" Thursday morning. See the change for yourself below.

The GFS Monday afternoon.

The GFS Thursday morning.

The process of moisture reduction will take a little time to unravel Tuesday, meaning it's still going to be humid, but not near as bad as recently. With afternoon heating, lingering moisture could lead to some spotty showers, but they look few and far between. With some passing clouds, highs should range from 80 north to 85 south.

A secondary wave slips in Tuesday night and that's when we feel some real relief. It's likely Wednesday that dew points dip into the low to mid 60s and with highs in the upper 70s, a much better brand of weather is on tap. It sticks around Thursday with mostly sunny skies and highs again in the upper 70s. Good stuff.

Friday is the beginning of an amplified NW flow that will bring a taste of early fall. As the developing trough digs southeast, a brief return flow of moisture and warmth results in summery conditions, with highs Friday back around 80 north to 85 south. At this point, models begin to offer differing solutions on the speed of an advancing cold front. The GFS is faster, pushing the front through Friday evening with a round of storms. The EURO holds it off until Saturday and shows far less in the way of rain and storms with its slower timing. Note the difference between the two in terms of rain totals Friday night through Saturday. It may take a couple more days to get a good handle on speed and impacts.

The GFS

The EURO

One thing both models agree upon is that eventually the jet buckles and a pronounced trough develops that is expected to lock in over the EC United States the remainder of August. Here it is taking shape Sunday.

Come Sunday, that brings temperature departures of 15 degrees below normal on the GFS.

It remains to be seen, but if correct the GFS brings highs down into the 60s Sunday afternoon.

Monday morning, lows are in the 40s well into Missouri and Illinois. It certainly looks like we could very well be seeing the first real crack in summer's defenses.

And look at this, the Climate Prediction Center has a high chance of below normal temperatures and near to even below normal precipitation odds in the 6-10 day period. That's a major change, my friends.

These are temperature projections from the GFS the next 2 weeks. The second half of August looks far different from what we experienced the first half. The next 15 days it shows nothing higher than 83 in the Quad Cities. It also has 3 days in the 60s, a mere 63 the 26th! Chances are pretty good we see our first lows in the 40s.

With hints of fall dancing in my head, I'll wish you a terrific day. Roll weather....TS