BIG RAINS MOVING OUT, HEAT MOVING IN

Some big-time rains fell across the region over the last 24 hours with pockets of 3-4"+ just west of the Quad Cities, to the north along the Mississippi River through northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. Also of note - major flash flooding took place around Milwaukee with 8"+ of rain reported.

Of note: southern Iowa really escaped the rainfall with little no rain reported. Even just south of Iowa City in far southern Johnson County into Washington/Keokuk Counties escaped the rainfall.

SELECT REPORTS

• Muscatine, Iowa - 5.00"

• Durant, Iowa - 5.00"

• Dundee, Iowa - 4.30"

• Dubuque - 3.80"

• Cedar Rapids - 3.75"

• Galena, Illinois - 3.00"

• Lowden, Iowa - 3.61"

• Ely, Iowa - 2.60"

• Western Davenport - 2.34"

• North Liberty, Iowa - 2.02"

Monday/Monday evening - another round of showers and storms are possible for portions of the area, however the heavy rain threat is much more limited than the past few days. Severe weather potential is also rather limited. Lingering showers may continue through Monday night on and off, but scattered in nature.

A secondary cold front will push through the region on Tuesday which will bring another chance for a few scattered showers and storms in the late afternoon and evening, but overall this again remains a somewhat benign event as moisture and instability will be in short supply. High pressure will take control midweek into the upcoming weekend with temperatures climbing up once again.

The model blend continues to show the warmup late week into the weekend with highs once again likely reaching towards 90. With humidity increasing as well we will likely have heat indices in the triple digits. Summer does not want to give up yet!

Ensemble guidance shows some potential for a return to a 'Ring of Fire' pattern late this week into the weekend as well for the region. The European Ensemble in particular is quite fired up for the Dakotas into Minnesota and Wisconsin Saturday/Sunday. Will need to watch that period quite closely.

Back to the heat, for the Quad Cities the average last 90-degree day is September 4. The last five years have pushed this much later however with 2024 and 2022 out to Sept. 20, 2023 at Sept. 30 and 2021 at Sept. 19. So again, the heat is not over until it's truly over.

Looking longer term, analogs continue to show a high chance of above-normal temperatures through at least Aug. 21. After this ensemble models start to differ on the exact way the pattern wants to evolve, and this is in part due to uncertainty with the tropics. A hurricane is somewhat likely in the Atlantic this week into early next week and this will have some influence on the overall upper air pattern. Direct US impacts with a tropical system are TBD at this point in time.

It has been hot and humid here in central Florida as well! Stormy the Storm Chasing Corgi has had his fair share of time in the sprinkler to cool off. Have a great week, friends!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart