CAN YOU IMAGINE?

AN IMPORTANT UPDATE TO REPORT. 

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I CAN'T EVEN IMAGINE

Before we get into the nuts and bolts of the forecast, I just have to remark on the historic Nor'easter that clobbered New England, especially Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts. There's still a bit of light snow falling so the final totals are not complete and a few spots could end up with slightly higher amounts. But for now, the highest total I've seen is 37.9 inches just south of Providence, RI at TF Green Airport. That is the all-time greatest snow in Providence. The NWS in south Boston has measured 31.8 inches which could also be a record but it's not yet confirmed.

Now, can you imagine winds of 60-80 mph along with the snow? Indeed, most of the hardest hit areas saw gusts up to 70 with a few 80 mph gusts along the immediate coast of SE Massachusetts. What a storm! In fact, at its peak the blizzard Monday not only had hurricane force winds, it even had an eye depicting the center of the circulation. That is so dang impressive.

Despite the storm being more than 1,000 miles away, the system impacted our local weather with the deep trough over the NE delivering a strong NW flow aloft. That's kept highs 10-18 degrees below normal Saturday through Monday. It's also brought very dry air limiting precipitation to a few spits of snow Sunday

Monday, strong subsidence produced plenty of sunshine and gave us a great chance to see the snow on the ground from Thursday nights big storm in Iowa. Look at that band of 6-16 inch snow that cut from SW Iowa to the NE corner of the state. You can even see the river valleys etched in the snow. Also, notice how sharp the cut-off was on the northern edge of the snow shield. Some counties saw a difference of 9-10 inches in 30 miles! You were either in or out. Another close call miss for my area.

Next up locally, is a a few days of ups and downs due to several fast moving systems. The first drives some warm air advection that allows a quick warm-up Tuesday with highs reaching 40 in the north to about 50 in the south. As the front comes through late in the day some passing clouds and a brief rain or snow shower is possible in the north. After that, cold air advection brings a a shot of colder weather Wednesday with NW winds holding highs to the upper 20s north to the low 40s south.

That brings us to the next area of concern which is a clipper Wednesday night. Models over the weekend were pretty excited about this systems potential for producing several inches of snow somewhere in my area midweek. Models are now far less enthused showing less amplification and meager moisture. As a result, snow numbers have really declined and some areas may not see much more than a few flurries. The latest trends support some light snow in the SW half to third of the area Wednesday night. If indeed we can saturate the low levels, we may get an inch, perhaps 2 in a narrow swath. My take is the colder, drier air entrenched over my NE counties supports the best chance of snow from about the Quad Cities southwest. Models do seem to be coming to that consensus but don't have much more than 1 to 2 inch totals tops in the core of the snow swath. Most areas are more in the 1/2 to 1 inch range. We've still got a day to fine tune totals but this system is looking pretty weak on the latest runs. If the EURO is right, this may not end up more than a dusting to nothing at all in the north. Here's the range of solutions.

The GFS

The 3k NAM

The EURO

The national model blend

The Canadian RDPS

With a weaker system, less snow, and the fast overall movement of the disturbance, temperatures have trended warmer Thursday and highs should hit the low 40s north to about 50 south. That puts us ahead of the next fast moving front Friday in a new round of robust warm air advection. Temperatures should really take off with the EURO popping highs of 60-65.

By Saturday cold air surges back into my northern counties but struggles to penetrate the south. The end result is a significant range in temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 20s north to near 50 south.

The EURO shows a disturbance winging its way along the sharp baroclinic boundary Saturday afternoon, creating a band of snow that could clip the area from about HWY 30 north. For what it's worth this early in the game, the EURO has some totals near 2 inches near HWY 20. The GFS shows a nothingburger so this is a low confidence feature at this time. Once whatever develops departs, Sunday looks dry but cold with highs in the upper 20s north to the mid 30s south.

As I mentioned the progressive pattern will bring quite a bit of temperature variance with regular bouts of warm air advection only to be quickly followed by rounds of cold air advection. This is what the EURO indicates for temperature trends the next 15 days. Up down, up down.

In general, the pattern remains dry with with the EURO showing meaningless precipitation totals of a couple hundreds of an inch or less through early next week. We need to get this dry pattern resolved with March knocking on the door. I'm a little low on patience.

Well, that's where things stand for now. Roll weather...TS ON A MORE SERIOUS NOTE, IF I CAN'T MEET MY FINANCIAL GOALS, THIS WILL BE THE LAST YEAR OF THE SITE. IF YOU LIKE THE CONTENT, THE FUTURE IS UP TO YOU. T.S. 92% to my goal.

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