CHANGE OF SEASONS NEXT WEEK...
We are in the time of year when the weather can switch seasons in the blink of an eye. It's becoming apparent that we are in for one of those head turning flips next week. This is what the EURO meteogram is showing for temperatures the next 10 days. We go from 82 today to 33 Saturday morning October 17th. That's essentially a 50 degree drop where we go from summer to fall and darn close to winter.
The GFS meteogram has a similar trend. Much better consistency than we saw yesterday. Interesting to note the EURO came around to the colder solution of the GFS. The US. model has been scoring better lately.
The great thing is we won't need to face the change for another week. This sensational pattern we are in largely holds through the weekend through and into Thursday of next week. The only interruption occurs Monday when a front scoots through the Midwest during the day bringing a dip in temperatures that lingers into Tuesday. The front is likely to bring a few showers but the speed and limited moisture should keep rain light and scattered. Chances for meaningful rain are greatest across my northern counties where the best forcing is expected. Rain totals look this way.
The GFS solution is definitely lighter than the EURO.
The relatively light amounts over the central Midwest should see to it that the dry conditions that still exist in parts of Iowa and Illinois will not be alleviated Here's the latest drought index issued Thursday. My area is actually in pretty good shape.
Getting back to the temperatures you can see the reason for the fine "mild" weekend ahead. The jet is in this position sending the remnants of summer in our direction.
The Zonal flow creates these temperature departures Friday. This should be the warmest day in the foreseeable future.
Next weekend the buckle takes place that allows a healthy chill to settle into the Midwest.
Just look at the temperature departures this type of set-up brings to the Midwest. That will get your attention
It's also likely to bring a hard freeze to much of the Midwest that would end the growing season.
The GFS shows lows well into the 20s throughout the Midwest
Just for giggles (at least at this point), the GFS ensemble has this for snowfall the next couple of weeks.
On that note, I suggest you enjoy what we have planned for you today. That includes sunshine and highs in the 80s. It will be breezy but that's what it takes to pull this trick off on October 9th. Happy Friday and roll weather...TS