COLDEST PRE-CHRISTMAS SINCE 89...

The details are still in the works but the potential is there for the coldest pre-Christmas weather since 1989. For those who don't recall, that December temperatures fell to 24 below zero in the Quad Cities on the 23rd. That is the all-time coldest temperature ever recorded during the month of December in the QCA. Santa needed the bun warmers that year! The Arctic surge brought record cold and snows to the deep south including Florida.

This December, a similar (but less extreme) set-up is taking shape with the ability to make the period December 22nd-24th the coldest in 33 years. Here is a look back at the 500mb upper air chart in December 23rd 1989.

Here's what's projected on the EURO this year. A very similar look.

In 1989 you can see the big 1052mb high driving the cold over Nebraska

December 23rd of this year, a comparable 1050mb high is in a similar position over the northern Plains.

There's little doubt 1989 is a strong analog for what is coming this year, especially when you consider the 89 cold was ushered in by a couple inches of snow. That could also happen this year. Again, what's coming in 2022 does not look as cold as 89 but it may be just a notch or two below it. Often times the past portends the future and that is why analogs can be helpful, especially in long range forecasting.

At least at this point, here is what the EURO is projecting for lows December 23rd.