COUNTDOWN TO SNOW
A MESSAGE FROM TSWAILS....
Hi everyone, I realize times are tough, and we are all feeling the pinch of inflation. That's the primary reason why this is a no pay site. However, I really could use your help to raise funds for the operational costs and time I invest in this site. Donations have been significantly down this year and to reach my goal of breaking even, I have a long way to go. Many of you are daily visitors and make financial or personal decisions based on the information presented. The majority of you appreciate the honesty, accuracy, and knowledge that you gain. If you fall into any of those categories, I ask that you make a $20 dollar investment in what I feel is a unique and reliable product. That way, we can keep things rolling as they have for more than 12 years. The future is in your hands, and I hugely appreciate the generosity of those who have contributed. So again, if you find value in the site and see the effort that's put into it, please consider a minimal donation to support TSwails today. Thanks for your time and loyalty, TS
A WHITE VALENTINE'S DAY
We didn't have any snow for Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Years, or National Weatherperson's Day, but by golly we will have a white Valentine's Day. Plan on taking your sweetie sledding. Ha, that would be a hit, wouldn't it! To each his own, it might be fun!
The latest models are in, and I'm quite certain that based on the trends, a Winter Storm Watch will be issued for the majority of my area. Bingo, it just came down for Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Aside from the GFS, which is still dragging its heals, there is good consistency on amounts and the fact everybody has a shot at 6 inches or more. This is going to be a powdery snow falling into cold air and temperatures at best in the mid-teens NW to mid 20s SE. That generates snow ratios of up to 15:1, maybe a tad higher in the NW. The SREF (Short range ensemble forecasts) shows my area in the heart of the best dendritic flake production zone.
The odds of snowfall rates of an inch or more an hour are maximized over the central Midwest.
A SWEETHEART DEAL VALENTINES WEEKEND...
I have a last minute opening at my 5-star AIRBNB just outside Galena. 2 nights for $400 bucks. That is a rock bottom, 50% off price! With the fresh snow, it will be ROMANTIC. Call Carolyn 563-676-3320 to stake a claim. CLICK TO SEE WHAT YOU GET
TIMING AND AMOUNTS
Some light snow or flurries may zip across the area early Tuesday morning with the main show holding off until late Tuesday night or early Wednesday. It should reach maximum intensity later in the afternoon, extending into Wednesday evening before tapering off and ending by daybreak Thursday. Here's a series of surface maps showing the progression.
6:00am WEDNESDAY...lighter snow beginning
NOON...pockets of heavier snow developing
6 to 9:00pm...Moderate to heavy snow areawide.
By the darker shades of blue, you can see where the heaviest snow is located late Wednesday on the simulated radar of the 3k NAM.
As for the latest model guidance, all but the GFS (which is further SE) shows a 5-8 inch snow, locally higher in a few spots. This is the raw guidance, it's not the actual forecast. It's the compilation of the amounts that will drive the final forecast. I may be wrong, but I still think the GFS is a bit too far SE leading to lower amounts in the NW. Something to keep an eye on. Here's what models suggest.
The EURO
The GFS
THE SFEF short range ensembles. These are only at 10:1 ratios so add 2-3 more inches to account for higher ratios.
THE NBM The national blend of models.
The official NWS forecast, looking much like the GFS
After a break Thursday and Friday, more snow with accumulations is expected Saturday. Keep that in the back of your pocket. I'm now packing for the Iowa Turf Conference in Des Moines. I will be teaching weather forecasting classes to the group Tuesday. This will keep me a bit tied up at times, but I will find occasions where I can check in with updates on the storm.
I'll have more on where we stand later Monday. Until then, think snow, roll weather, and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
Comments