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DROPPING LIKE FLIES...

NOW MORE THAN EVER I NEED YOUR HELP WITH OPERATING EXPENSES

THE FUTURE OF THE SITE DEPENDS ON YOU. 

Hi everyone, as you know, TSwails.com is a no-pay site; existing on voluntary subscriptions or personal donations. If you find value in the site, I'm asking kindly that you make the donation you feel is worthy. I'm suggesting $20.00, roughly a nickel a day. Less than 5% of my readers donate, so your gift is not only appreciated, it helps immensely. Your contribution, whatever you can swing, supports the content, infrastructure, and operational costs. Thanks for anything you can do.


IS THIS FOR REAL?

You won't notice it as much today, but the last 30 days have been remarkably warm, which is why I'm remarking on it. We always have some mild stretches, what you might call thaws, but I must say this stretch of warmth, on top of what we had in December, has us heading for what may very well be the warmest winter on record. As it stands now, nearly 90 cities are vying for warmest winter status. Many other spots will be in the top 5-10 all-time. The records are falling like flies in the fall.



The past 30 days below, average temperatures have been running 10–15 degrees above normal (per day) across much of the Midwest. Parts of Canada are closer to 20 degrees per day. A day or two of departures like that are quite a feat, 30 consecutive days is off the reservation. I don't even know how to express how difficult it is to accomplish something like that. I'm very impressed!


Since December 1st, these are the temperature ranks by climate district for the 86-day period. If you break it, you own it!


This all comes on top of the fact 2023 was the warmest year of record going back to 1850. The last time Earth had a year that was warmer than normal was 1976, 47 years ago!


Back on February 11th, ice coverage on the Great Lakes reached a historic low at just 2.7 percent. Lake Superior was at an astoundingly low level of 1.7 percent. The highest ice concentration ever recorded on Lake Superior was in 1996 when ice covered 100% of the lake. To the contrary, the lowest previously occurred in the mild winter of 2012 when ice was only measured on 8.5% of the lake. This hi-res GOES satellite image taken Friday shows how open Lake Superior is.


Ice this year compared to the historical average on Lake Superior.

I guess you get the idea, strange and unusual things are going on, and I do not see any strong signals yet that a prolonged period of cold is on the way. Climate change is real and extreme weather is the new norm.


70S AND RECORD HIGHS TUESDAY...

The next surge of warmth is already entering the region Sunday as winds blow briskly from the south. Following highs Saturday of 40 to 45, highs Sunday quickly soar back into the 55 to 60 degree category. Mostly sunny skies are expected all weekend.


Monday and Tuesday, a rather vigorous trough emerges over the Rockies. A pronounced southerly flow ahead of it will allow many areas to challenge the established record highs. The south may see 70 as early as Monday, but signals are strong that 70s are more widespread Tuesday. These are projected highs on the GFS, Tuesday the 27th.

These are the associated temperature departures.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY


RECORD HIGHS MONDAY MARCH 26th.

Burlington.......69, 1996

Cedar Rapids..68,1896

Moline.............64, 1971

Dubuque.........62, 1896


RECORD HIGHS TUESDAY MARCH 27th

Burlington.......72, 1976

Moline.............71, 1976

Cedar Rapids..64, 2018

Dubuque..........62, 1896


There has been talk of strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday as the trough in the Rockies ejects a cold front towards the central Midwest. The latest trends show a lack of moisture and a faster frontal passage, which indicates a lower storm threat, if there's any at all. This is highly contingent on the speed of the front, which is far from certain. The area from the Quad Cities SE has the best chance of seeing any storms.


If we do see precipitation, much of it appears to be post-frontal late Tuesday night. At that time, some light showers may develop, which mix with or change to snow for a brief period of time. Little if any snow accumulation is currently expected.


Sharply colder temperatures are expected behind the system, and highs may not reach 32 next Wednesday. As has been the case with recent fronts, the cold, while noticeable, is progressive and warmer air is already surging back into the central Midwest for the arrival of March. As it stands now, next weekend should be dry and mild, with the possibility of highs once again returning to the 60s. The EURO even has highs in the 70s Monday, March 4th. The beat goes on! Roll weather...TS P.S. With my recent health issues, I very much need to reach my fund-raising goals, but we are getting close. To keep things as they are, I'm in humble need of your donation to the site more than ever. If you use it and find value in it, please consider a contribution. Thanks to you who have already helped the cause!

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