EXTREME COLD, MORE SNOW?

terryswails1
28 minutes ago
5 min read

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HIGH IMPACT WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND

SUB-ZERO COLD
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS 30-40 BELOW
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THIS WEEKEND
HARSH COLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

Mother nature is in a foul mood and destined to stay irritated into next Tuesday. The end result is high impact weather that kicks into high gear Thursday night. At that time, a tentacle of fierce cold air fresh out of the Arctic will descend on the Midwest, sending temperatures below zero and wind chills to dangerous levels. As I write this, an Extreme Cold Watch is in effect that I anticipate the NWS will upgrade to a warning by sometime Thursday, if it hasn't already happened.

The EURO ensembles, an average of 51 members, shows a 90-100 percent chance of temperatures at or below minus 10 for all but my far southern counties.

They also indicate a 60-80 percent chance of lows reaching 20 below in my northernmost counties.

While Thursday will be a cold day, especially in the north where snow cover will temper any heating, the true surge of intense cold does not arrive until late afternoon north and early evening south. Before that, highs should reach the upper teens north to the low 30s in the far south, belying what's coming down the pike.

Around sunset Thursday, or shortly after in the south, the frigid air roars southeast with rapidly falling temperatures and winds gusting to 30 mph+. By early Friday, temperatures on the EURO are shown, ranging from 20 below north to 10 below south.

Wind Chills are indicated to be 41 below north to 30 below south. That would reach the extreme cold threshold necessary for a warning. Some spots in NC Wisconsin are shown at 50 below. This is serious stuff for people, (as well as animals), anyone outdoors for even a short period of time needs to be properly dressed

Usually, temperatures moderate during the day, especially if there's sunshine. In this case, the cold is so harsh that readings at noon Friday are still below zero, as low as 15 below in Dubuque.

Temperatures all across my region will be 30 to 33 degrees colder than just 24 hours earlier.

Temperatures over the 7-day period January 23rd to the 30th are running 20 to 25 degrees below normal per day.

That brings us to the developing storm that is expected to impact 70 million people over the weekend. As of late Wednesday, at least 1/3rd of the country was under winter storm watches.

Due to the fact we are so deeply entrenched in the cold air, the majority of the worst snow and ice will remain displaced to our southeast. However, the EURO has been consistently allowing enough moisture and over-running for a prolonged period of at least some light snow, especially from the Quad Cities southeast. Light snow enters the south Saturday morning and spreads northeast before lifting out late Sunday. The latest EURO even gets an inch of snow as far north as my NW counties, with 2–4 inches showing in the southeast.

The 51 ensemble members of the EURO depict a range of 1 to 2.5 inches. However, high temperatures will only be in the range of zero northwest to about 5 in the southeast, leading to very high snow ratios over 20:1 and a fluffy snow. You could easily double the 10:1 ratios the ensemble show, and come up with a range of 2–5 inches.

The operational EURO, a single member shows this using the Kuchera method which accounts for higher ratios. Indeed, it does have some amounts up around 5 inches in the far south.

There's always a hitch, and in this case it's the fact the U.S. based GFS, is less phased which leads to a weaker system, a more southerly track, and far less snow. Its ensemble members show this for weekend snow. Quite a difference between the two.

That leaves me, the forecaster with a decision, and what could be construed as a low confidence snowfall forecast. To assist, I brought in a 3rd party member known as the Canadian GEM. Its ensemble members show a track more in line with what the EURO is indicating.

Bottom line, I like a version further northwest, similar to the EURO and GEM. They might be a bit too aggressive, but I suspect the GFS is much too far south. Until I see something change on the EURO, I think it's leading the way and I will follow accordingly. Something has to give, and it's just a matter of time before it does. It's still a bit early, and we'll see where models stand Thursday.

One thing I have noticed is that even with the addition of some warm air advection, clouds, and perhaps some light snow over the weekend, temperatures Friday through Tuesday remain very cold. It is possible that in my NW counties, temperatures may not get above zero Thursday night through Monday night, or roughly 96 consecutive hours. Even if they do, it won't be by much, and that is a heck of cold stretch!

PLEASE NOTE:

Meteorologist Nick Stewart and I are planning a Facebook live video for 7:00pm Thursday evening to discuss the latest trends on the severe cold and threat of at least some snow this weekend. We'll have plenty of insights on numerous topics and hope you will join us. That's on the Terry Swails Facebook page. Until then, ride low...

Looking for some good news aside from the fact we miss the brunt of a major weekend winter storm? Then stop reading now. Here's the ensemble mean, showing average 46-day temperature departures from now through March 8th. A cold look to say the least!