FATHER'S DAY WEEKEND...

Father's Day weekend got off to a pretty good start Friday with seasonal temperatures and generally dry conditions. The satellite imagery did reveal a disturbance in Missouri that spun up a band of clouds that clipped my southern counties. Additional clouds covered the upper Midwest near a slow moving front. Between the two systems, my local area came away with a pleasant late spring day. It's always good to be in the right place!

There were a few showers and storms, but the brunt of the rain stayed either southeast or northwest of my counties. This radar depiction at 5:30 p.m. Friday shows the quiet nature of the evening.

One notable impact of the clouds across the southeast was that temperatures were cooler there than in the north, with less in the way of solar radiation.

Saturday will bring a little less in the way of clouds, especially in the southeast. As a result, I expect to see some moderation in temperatures with highs inching into the low to mid 80s, warmest west of the Mississippi. While a stray shower or storm is possible in spots, it's hardly worth the mention.

Sunday should see an uptick in temperatures and moisture, meaning Father's Day will be warm and muggy, with highs inching into the mid to upper 80s areawide. Most of the day will be dry, but there should be enough CAPE (instability) and forcing for some scattered storms to develop in the afternoon, especially NW of the Quad Cities. With dew points in the upper 60s to near 70, any decent updraft that can get going could unleash localized downpours. Scattered storms could spread over the remainder of the area Sunday night.

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A STEAMY, STORMY WEEK AHEAD...

Early next week, an area of high pressure is shown setting up shop in the southwest that slowly builds east over time. By next weekend, the GFS shows a heat dome centered on the Midwest.

That allows rich tropical moisture, hot air, and regular opportunities for thunderstorm clusters. Already, the Storm Prediction Center has a slight 15% risk of severe storms next Wednesday (5 days in advance of the event).

This is a classic June "ring of fire" set-up that features mososcale convective systems that form on the northern periphery of the heat and humidity where the CAP can break, especially at night with the addition of the low level jet. It would not be surprising to see almost nightly thunderstorm complexes somewhere in the Midwest.

When I say rich tropical moisture, I'm talking about available water vapor that can be converted to the liquid state of rain by way of thunderstorms. June 18th the GFS shows pwats of 2.03 inches.

June 25th, a week later they are even higher at 2.16 inches. I would say at least 8 out of 10 times I've seen water vapor exceeding 2 inches locally, some place ends up with a 2-inch rain, many times significantly more than that. Water vapor of 2 or more inches is a benchmark threshold for excessive rains.

Models always bounce around from run to run with rainfall totals, so what you look for each run are consistent trends indicating where and when the heavy rains are shown. It will be a few more days before we can get more specific about placement. As it stands now, there is a strong signal for a significant period of wet weather beginning next week. To give you an idea of early trends (not a forecast, just raw model output), here's what models are suggesting for rain totals over the next 2 weeks.

The EURO

The GFS

Temperatures will be challenging next week and beyond due to the proximity of the boundary defining the north edge of the heat. It will likely fluctuate up and down, but in general be quasi-stationary over the central Midwest. Some days may be flat out hot, others just very warm. Either way, it's likely dew points will consistently be in the range of the upper 60s to low 70s. The Climate Prediction Center has at least a slight risk of hazardous heat June 21-24th.

Here's what the EURO meteogram looks like the next 2 weeks. It's nothing extreme, with the core of the heat centered a little further south. Even so, it's very warm, above normal, and no doubt it will be very sticky with high humidity. The cooler days are most likely the result of a passing thunderstorm complex.

As a whole, it just looks like some good old-fashioned summer weather is on the burner. Enjoy your weekend and roll weather...TS