FEELING THE LOVE...
Well, I'll tell you what, we've been feeling the love here in the Midwest lately. By that I mean November weather that's been characterized by dry conditions, sunshine, and highs in the 60s. By all accounts, the pattern looks well established and teleconnected, ensuring above normal temperatures will be with us for the better part of the next two weeks. That said, we will see a cool-down into the 50s the next few days before another upward surge next week.
Here's what the EURO depicts for temperatures in the Quad Cities the next 10 days.
The Climate Prediction Center is on board with next weeks warming tend showing an 8-14 day temperature outlook with no signs of winter and well above normal temps.
Look at these departures the EURO spits out November 16th.
It's no wonder with a western trough and eastern ridge promoting SW flow aloft. The door is wide open for late season warmth.
Additionally, the way the upper level flow is structured moisture is limited and forcing is minimal. That's a combination that yields little in the way of rainfall for at least the next 7 days, maybe more. The GFS indicates this for total rain the next 10 days ending November 17th.
In fact, 10 day rainfall departures indicate much of the nation below normal on rainfall. It all adds up to a lengthy period of Indian Summer weather.
Taking this a bit further, what I'm showing below are 850mb temperatures just before Thanksgiving (November 22nd). 850mb is the threshold, (at the 5,000 ft. level) that we look for to define the rain snow line. Simply put, zero C. or colder at 850 is where snow can reach the ground. For now, outside of northern Maine, the GFS shows no place in the U.S. east of the Plains where 850 temps are cold enough to support snow November 22nd. That is unusual.
Below is the GFS total snowfall through November 22nd. Quite honestly, multiple parameters besides the GFS indicate prospects of seeing snow before Thanksgiving as slim and none.
I'm personally not happy about that but it was a trend I was noting last week when I stated I did not think winter would kick in until mid December. I still think that general time period holds merit based on the new EURO Weeklies which go out to December 22nd. The control begins to aggressively allow colder air back into the Midwest but not until December 14th. See the 500mb trough it indicates the evening of December 15th.
The evening of the 21st the Weeklies show a healthy shot of cold over the Midwest with another blast hot on its heels digging into the northern Rockies, likely in time for Christmas.
The 7 day period December 16-22nd, the Weekly control depicts 850 temperature departures that are substantially below normal.
December 21st is shown particularly cold with anomalies in my area 12-13 degrees below normal.
Those readings are certainly cold enough for snow and the EURO mean snowfall guidance shows snow totals like this between December 15th and the 21st.
If you are looking for snow at Christmas, this is a set-up I would take in a minute. A lot can change between now and then but at least the Weeklies signal a pattern change that would give us a shot. Far different from what is on the table the next 3 weeks. Until next time, roll weather...TS
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