FIT FOR A FRIDAY...

Before I get to the weekend ahead, I thought it worth pointing out that May is prime time for tornadoes and severe weather here in the central Midwest. Yet, with only two days to go in the month and virtually no chance of tornadoes, it appears Iowa will not have a single touch down in May this year. It's not the first time it's happened, but rest assured it's a rare accomplishment.

For comparison, last year at this point in the month, 47 twisters had touched down across the state.

Just as impressive, according to SPC, is the fact that only 1 tornado warning has been issued for the entire state of Iowa this May (that encompasses 99 counties). 44 were issued in a "single" day, June 11th of 2008. Let's face it, it's been a very quiet year for severe weather all around the Hawkeye State.

While it's been uneventful locally for severe weather, that's not been the case to our south and east. Below, you can see the plots of all the nation's severe weather to date. Here's the breakdown of the 11,240 severe weather reports:

Tornadoes......1023

Severe wind...7044

Severe hail.....3173

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FIT FOR A FRIDAY...

Our weather improved considerably Thursday and is likely to be even warmer Friday with some compressional heating ahead of a backdoor cold front diving south out of Wisconsin. Highs are expected to bounce into the upper 70s to low 80s with abundant sunshine. Winds will pick up some out of the W/NW at 15-25 mph.

Saturday, the back door front is expected to stall west of my area, setting up a baroclinic boundary that extends NW to SE over eastern Iowa. This may provide enough forcing to spark some showers and thunderstorms in my western counties later Saturday or Saturday night. The 3k NAM shows the primary zone of development from Waterloo to Iowa City and on to Galesburg. With any storms traveling southeast, the majority of my area east of that line would stay dry.

Here's the simulated radar of the 3k NAM around 6:00 p.m. Saturday evening.

The boundary will also have an impact on temperatures Saturday with highs in my northeast counties in the mid to upper 70s while further southwest closer to the boundary they should reach the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Later Sunday, upper ridging begins to take hold and the boundary starts to inch east towards Illinois as a warm front. It's possible a few storms could pop along it, especially later in the day or evening. Forcing is rather weak, so anything that develops looks widely scattered. Most spots will be dry and temperatures under partly sunny skies should range from the low to mid 80s southwest to the upper 70s to near 80 northeast. A nice warm way to start off the month of June.

Monday we've entered into a warm and more humid air mass. Highs could get pretty toasty in the south, where readings may clip 90. Overall, 84-88 will do it in most areas. Capping looks strong, keeping the threat of showers and thunderstorms very low.

Tuesday gets more interesting. Our next front begins its descent, pooling moisture ahead of it. Water vapor is shown exceeding 2 inches up and down the Mississippi by evening.

Dew points are depicted reaching the low 70s, as high as we've seen all year.

That should drive CAPE into the 1,000 to 1,500 j/kg range, indicating descent instability for storms. The front arriving late day or early evening will be the catalyst for their development. Severe weather is a consideration, depending on mesoscale details such as timing. Additionally, the deep moisture could whip up some 1 inch downpours where the strongest updrafts are found. Highs are likely to lay out in a spread of 80 in the northwest to near 90 in the southeast. Here's the early read in rain potential from the EURO and GFS Tuesday.

The EURO

The GFS

Following the system, the upper air pattern looks fairly progressive into the week 2 period. We should also be in proximity to the storm track, meaning rain systems are likely to be more regular. I would think amounts through June 13th should at least be close to normal. As for temperatures, we should fluctuate between the 70s and 80s as various systems come and go. The EURO has this the next 15 days.

Here's the GFS for the same period.

That's the nuts and bolts of it for now. Enjoy what looks like a good day, certainly one that's fit for a Friday. Roll weather...TS