FLIRTING WITH THE RING

Heat, with all the spoils of humidity, will set the stage for a steamy weekend ahead. Additionally, our proximity to the edge of the heat may make parts of the area susceptible to scattered thunderstorms, especially the north. From there into southern Minnesota and Wisconsin, the ring of fire will be situated, including a band of high instability (CAPE) and enough forcing to potentially penetrate a layer of warm air aloft known as a CAP.

One of the biggest challenges for forecasters mid-summer is determining the strength and location of the CAP. Without the proper forcing, the CAP provides convective inhibition. You can have tremendous potential energy at the surface in the form of heat and humidity, but if you keep a lid on it, nothing happens. It's much like a bottle of pop. Shake it up, and you know that once you remove the cap, what's inside is going to immediately explode. So it goes with the atmosphere. The more steamy it is, the more potential energy, making it ripe for storms. Question is, can you get a parcel of air to rise through the warmth above. If you can, it's game on for strong thunderstorms.

Before we get to the sizzling temperatures, let's elaborate on the storm potential. While models are not overly excited about the potential, scattered storms are possible as early as Saturday morning, mainly north of HWY 30. This is due to an elevated wing of warm air advection that surges in from the west. Essentially, it's the leading edge of a hot air mass that settles in for the duration of the next 3 days. Most of the area may end up missing this, assuming it even develops. If it does, it's in and out, departing by mid-morning.

Once gone, heating daytime heating commences and temperatures surge toward highs in the upper 80s north to the low 90s south. Dew points steadily climb and by evening are in the low 70s. Heat Index values are projected to exceed 100 south of I-80, and the NWS has issued a Heat Advisory in effect for that part of the area. Mid to upper 90s are expected across the remainder of my northern counties.

By evening, CAPE has reached significant levels of 3,500 j/kg. At that time, convection is shown blowing up in Minnesota. As the storms congeal, they are likely to develop a cold pool (mini front) that fuels and drives them southeast into the stout instability over northern Iowa. The HRRR shows them at midnight plowing into my northern counties around HWY 20. Despite the late hour, these storms appear to have the potential to produce gusty winds and heavy rain much of the night as they travel southeast.

SPC has issued a slight level 2 risk of severe storms for my northern counties Saturday night.

At daybreak Sunday, any lingering storms quickly pass out of the southeast and much like Saturday, daytime heating begins again. Assuming no residual clouds or spotty storms redevelop, highs should poke 90 north to perhaps 95 south. Dew points are likely to climb even higher and should hit the mid to even upper 70s.

The moisture and heat creates another mean day, with heat index values of 100-106 possible.

Such a set-up also creates big instability, with CAPE shown nearing 5,000 j/kg. in spots Sunday evening.

While a storm is possible in the north, this time the CAP looks stronger and may limit or even thwart thunderstorm development. We will know more on the potential when mesoscale details are known following what happens Saturday night.

That leads us to Monday, and the same set of circumstances should result in similar conditions. Highs are shown climbing back into the low to mid 90s, with extreme dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Very sultry. The EURO shows a pocket of heat index values in the 105-109 range from about 1-80 south. Yikes!

That amps up CAPE to extreme levels and creates what would be an extremely unstable air mass. The EURO has CAPE of 5-6,000 j/kg. across the north in late afternoon.

About that time, a cold front approaches my northern counties. That could be the straw that breaks the CAP, allowing a line of strong to severe storms to blossom and advance southeast. For now SPC has a slight risk in place for severe storms and if trends hold I could see this increased at some point to enhanced if it looks like the CAP will collapse. Strong winds and very heavy rain are the concerns.

Tuesday, the cold front is shown departing the south by early afternoon. That brings a strong NW flow that by Wednesday drops highs into the upper 70s to low 80s with a big decline in humidity. The pleasant weather pattern should then hold through next weekend. There could be a few instability showers late week, but I see no heat, no big humidity, and no strong storms.

Meantime, we're flirting with the ring of fire. Have a solid weekend and keep your cool! Roll weather...TS

THE REVIEWS ARE SPECTACULAR. OUR AIRBNB IS A MOST LOVED GUEST FAVORITE!

AIRBNB has rated my renovated church in Galena A GUEST FAVORITE, A MOST LOVED home according to visitors. Check out some of our reviews and get in on the flexible deals we have available below.

Christa-Monument, Colorado

The Little White Church is amazing!!!! Pictures do not do it justice. I would absolutely recommend it to my friends and family. It is just so unique. Carolyn is an amazing host and super responsive. I would give our experience 6 out of 5 stars if I could.

Phillip-Queensland, Australia

Amazing and thoughtful renovation. Stayed in a piece of history. Great location and modern amenities. Would stay again!

Jill

The Little White Church is beautiful. The decorations are perfect, and it was redone with impeccable taste. Carolyn was a great host.

Brent

Such a gem. Relaxing in the countryside in a historic church that was beautifully decorated and recently renovated was exactly what we experienced. Everyone loved our stay, and we will be back!!!

Leigh

Beautiful and unique. We were all captivated by the adorable chapel turned AIRBNB

Jenny-Frisco, Texas

It was a magical place for our family to celebrate Christmas!

Kelly

What a gem! The Little White Church exceeded our expectations. It was the perfect spot to meet up with another couple to relax and explore nearby Galena. We enjoyed the beautiful great room with its fireplace and amazing views of the rolling countryside. (The photos simply can't do it justice). The charming church/home was quiet, well appointed and clean. And Carolyn was proactive with instructions and a terrific communicator. We will definitely be back!

John

Absolutely incredible! Loved the tranquility and the beautiful views. The decor was so inviting. AND the bell tower works!! Would 100% stay here again!

Tori-Cedar Falls

This place is so beautiful! Carolyn and Terry were so thoughtful and kind to let us have our wedding at the church. They even provided extra supplies in case we needed them. The private garden worked perfectly for our ceremony, and the backyard easily fit our reception needs. Not to mention, the balconies make perfect photo spots! My husband and I recommend the Little White Church and will be telling all our friends about it.

Mahesh-Buffalo Grove

Carolyn was a great host, very flexible! The place is super clean, spacious with a private backyard overlooking the fields and bluffs! We spent a lot of time on the deck. Great kitchen, clean bedrooms and baths. Highly recommend the place.

William

Great place. Great host. Will definitely book again and tell our friends.

Miriam

Carolyn and Terry's place is BEAUTIFUL! The Little White Church is a wonderful place, way more beautiful than the pictures. Everything is brand new and extremely clean. Staying at the church was a unique experience and I would love to come back soon. I strongly recommend the place if you are looking for a 5-star location!

Vanessa-Chicago

Carolyn was great! Absolutely beautiful place! I would not hesitate to go back. We spent Thanksgiving and the next night. Very well stocked and above and beyond with extras included. Thank you!

MAKE US AN OFFER...

What about pricing? Right now, we are able to offer you our best pricing ever. We have 3 nights for the price of 2 which, depending on the days, can save as much as $300-$400 dollars. If you book directly through us, you can also eliminate booking fees and taxes that the big chains charge. Cleaning fees are also drastically reduced. It all adds up to exceptional deals at a destination worth visiting. Let us assist in finding a time and price that works for you. Here's a link to some pictures. https://www.tswails.com/galena-airbnb

Carolyn and I will do all we can to make sure your stay is a memorable one. Please call or text Carolyn for more details and options and get a prime date while they are still available. Again, that's Carolyn at 563-676-3320. Or carolynswettstone@yahoo.com

Now that it's vacation season, there is no better place to visit than Galena and no better place to stay than my newly renovated AIRBNB, the Little White Church. We are located in the bluffs, just 5 miles from the 2nd largest tourism destination in Illinois. In fact, "Tourist Destination", rated Galena as the 2023 top place to visit in the entire Midwest.

Now is the best time to enjoy all there is to offer, and my 5-star AIRBNB is the perfect location to stay. Set in the rolling hills just outside of town, our completely renovated church is designed for you to unwind and relax.

Again, we are an AIRBNB Super host and can accommodate up to 8 guests. We've got cable, hi-speed WIFI, Sirius XM and a sparkling full kitchen. We are a home away from home and take great pride in cleanliness and comfort. All of our ratings have attained perfect 5-star status!

Hope to see you soon,

Terry and Carolyn

7 GREAT REASONS TO VISIT GALENA

1. It’s Steeped In History

2. It’s Home To One Of The Best Main Streets In America

3. The Restaurants Are Amazing

4. There’s A Lot To Do Outdoors

5. You Don’t Have To Travel To The Mountains To Go Skiing

6. It’s A Great Place To Spend The Fourth Of July

7. Did I Mention The Shopping?