FLUSH IT FAST...

Good days and bad days, that's life in the Midwest. Sometimes, you don't have to wait long to see both sides of the coin. For example, Wednesday at 3:00pm in Dubuque the temperature was 75 with sunny skies. 24 hours later (at the same time Thursday), the reading was 55 with light rain and a heavy low overcast. Not much you can do but flush it fast, which I did with great enthusiasm.

Rainfall the past 24 hours, ending at 6:00pm Thursday, was most plentiful across the northern portions of my area. Some spots saw more than an inch of rain, others in central Iowa more than 2 inches.

On a positive note, repeated rains the past couple of months have removed the last vestige of extreme drought in eastern Iowa. There's some work to be done though, with abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions still shown in Thursday's outlook from SW to NE across Iowa. Compare now (left) to September 26th, 2023 (right).

Currently, only 25.98 percent of the Midwest is in abnormally dry, moderate, extreme, or exceptional drought. September 26th of 2023 that number was at 83.18 percent. Huge improvement.

Below you can see the rain clouds that covered all of my area late Thursday.

The chilly 6:00pm temperatures Thursday that resulted from the extensive clouds and rain cooled air.

A few spotty light showers will remain in the region Friday as we remain close enough to the system to see the impacts of passing clouds, forcing, and instability aloft. These should be very brief and light, with much of the day being dry. Additionally, clouds will be thinner than yesterday with breaks for some periods of sun, highs should get back into the mid 60s, perhaps upper 60s far south.

Following one last disturbance Friday night that may spark some showers over the NE half, that should be the last of the rain for the weekend. More on that part of the weather story below.

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MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND REMAINS ON TRACK...

All systems are go for dry conditions for the daytime hours of Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will remain a bit cool Saturday, around 65-70. However, with mostly sunny skies, it looks to be a keeper.

Mother's Day, remains on track to be a very nice day. Mostly sunny skies and W/SW winds will pump highs into the mid to upper 70s. There is a slight chance of a shower or storm towards evening, but the bulk of the day appears outstanding.

A couple more disturbances take a swipe at the Midwest, Monday and Wednesday of next week. There are significant differences in phasing, which has major implications for both precipitation and temperatures. The EURO is far less phased with energy and pushes a more progressive system through the Midwest. It's also not so much of a direct blow. Here's what is shows for 4 day precipitation and 7 day temperature departures, the middle and end of next week.

The GFS unloads another major storm with much heavy precipitation, and a blast of cool air that keeps temperatures well below normal. Here's what it shows for the same period as the EURO above. As you can see, we have a big difference with major implications on the sensible weather. At least for now, I think the GFS is too strong with the system, and I'm inclined to roll with the EURO. This will get cleared up in the next 24–48 hours. Stay tuned.

Meantime, the NWS has alerted us to the fact the Space Weather Prediction center has issued a severe G4 Geomagnetic Watch for an intense solar flare. The coronal ejections are anticipated to merge with the Earth's magnetic field late Friday or early Saturday. If we can keep the skies clear enough, we may have a shot at seeing the Northern Lights. About 30 years ago, I witnessed a brilliant display of the Aurora in the U.P. of Michigan, and it was beyond breathtaking. So spectacular in every way, it's hard to convey the magnitude of the moment. I hope to get another chance to absorb the powerful sight at least one more time in my lifetime.

Well, that's it for now. We have made it to another Friday and are now another day closer to summer. Hopefully that's enough to keep you going in this crazy upside down world. Roll weather...TS