BING, BANG, BOOM...
- 1 day ago
- 4 min read
TSWAILS IS PROUD TO INTRODUCE WX SCHOOL, MODEL ANALYSIS 101
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BING, BANG, BOOM-THE NEXT 15 DAYS...
I'm starting off the post with the 5 day temperature departures for the next 15 days. I'm using the ensemble mean, comprised of 51 members. Anybody who's lived through a March in this area, knows the madness that's associated with temperatures, precipitation types, and wind. It's the month that dang well has it all. To my point, the breakdown ahead.
March 3-7 (Days 0-5)
BING...Most of the country, especially the east is basking in well above normal temperatures. A blow torch.
March 8-13 (Days 5-10)
Bang...Cold is growing in Canada, while warm, anomalies nationally are less, a change is brewing.
March 13-18th (Days 10-15)
BOOM!...the eastern ridge is overwhelmed. The pattern goes from above to well below normal temperatures.
Temperature departures March 9th
Temperature departures March 17th
Doing the basic math, thats about a 60 degree swing in temperatures. So what is the bing, bang boom all about? What's driving the madness? Let's start with the MJO, which looks like this the next 20 days.
Much of the next 8-10 days its shown in or near phase 6, known to be the holy grail of warmth during winter months. That very much fits what models are indicating during the day 1-5 and 5-10 periods shown above. However, it eventually makes the transition into phase 7 day 10-15. That's a much colder signal in mid-March. Below you can see the phase temperature correlations for phase 6 and 7. The bottom line is the EURO's MJO is showing what its ensemble is indicating thermally. That's a good sign, it isn't always the case.
Just for fun, here's some other teleconnections that make sense with the temperature patterns that are indicated the next 15 days. The WPO is shown dropping deeply into negative territory. That seeds Canada with plenty of cold air. Get a storm with a front and it can send it south.
That colder air is especially likely with the EPO negative, which its shown trending into by day 10.
The biggest factor for cold I see, especially over the eastern half of the nation is the PNA. It's going from the warmth of a negative PNA and a western trough in coming days, to what appears to be an eastern trough when the EURO shows the colder pattern by the 16th.
This year has been really hard with teleconnections not carrying the weight of years past. Part of that is no doubt tied to climate change. With ocean temperatures so much warmer and increased water vapor, the analogs that create the correlations over the past 30 decades and thier averages are altered. If the input is different, you can't expect similar results. Anyway, there is strong evidence that after a week or so of very warm temperatures, we are likely to go the other direction mid-March.
UP, UP, AND AWAY...
Let's get to the good stuff and that's the fact temperatures are headed up, especially after Thursday. Until then, a front remains anchored over Missouri. Some warm air advection will cause some periods of clouds both Wednesday and Thursday. E/SE winds will not be conducive to temperatures warming much beyond the low to mid 50s. A few showers are possible on a hit and miss basis, especially Wednesday night in the SE half of my area (roughly the Quad Cities SE). The EURO is pretty light with amounts. The GFS is more generous with some amounts up to 1/3rd of an inch plus. I can't rule that out.
Friday, the green light is on for a substantial warm-up that could send highs into the range of 70 north to 75 south. Record highs are in the 69-73 degree category, so if things go as shown, we are very much in the ballgame for altering records.
The EURO highs Friday.
The GFS highs Friday.
With dew points shown spiking close to 60, the richest moisture we've seen in many months would be in place. That combined with the warmth delivers some instability. CAPE values look like this around the Midwest which is quite healthy for early March.
The question then becomes, can we get storms to fire and if so how widespread will they be? At this point there does not appear to be much of a CAP, so just about anytime during the day Friday scattered storms are possible. If indeed temperatures and moisture reach the levels indicated, there will be some shear for organized updrafts, perhaps a couple of supercells. SPC has the region in a slight risk outlook of severe weather Friday. Even greater chances are possible from the Iowa border into NW Missouri and Kansas.
The most organized storms are expected out ahead of a cold front that at mid-afternoon Friday is shown over central Iowa. The EURO lightning density product shows this for simulated 6 hour strikes between 6:00pm and midnight.
Of course, if you can get under a thunderstorm prospects of heavier rain increase substaintially. The NWS precip. portal shows this for general amounts through the day Friday, nothing including Friday evening which could end up being the best overall window for rain.
Temperatures cool Saturday behind the front, but rebound nicely to the 60s Sunday and back into the 70s Monday. This is what the EURO indicates for temperatures the next 2 weeks. That my friends, is your madness.
Well, if nothing else the weather looks far from boring the next week and that's fine by me. Roll weather...TS
