GIMME THE GOOD STUFF

Temperatures around the region were warm again Wednesday, with highs hitting the upper 70s to low 80s, well above normal. Much of the day was good with a mix of sun and clouds, that is until a narrow band of showers and storms popped in the late afternoon roughly along HWY 30. This was expected, with the 3k NAM showing it 24 hours earlier on the simulated radar.

Here's what the actual radar looked like around 6:00pm Wednesday. That's a solid depiction of what was to come, a day ahead of time.

Essentially what happened was a back door cold front eased into EC Iowa, providing a boundary for moisture to pool. Late in the day, the convective temperature was met and up went the towers and down came the rain.

As you can see, the rain was very spotty and centered on where that back door front and its convergence was located at peak heating. Once the sun set, what instability existed was removed from the equation and the rains swiftly ended. I would estimate 90 percent of my area saw little if any rain. Where the stronger updrafts formed, some isolated spots picked up 1/2 inch. There was one cell over NW Cedar Rapids that may have produced over an inch. These are the Doppler radar estimates through evening.

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ON TO BIGGER AND BETTER THINGS

High pressure is set to build into the region the remainder of the week. Easterly winds around its center over Lake Superior will see to it that temperatures are cooler. Nighttime lows will be in the 40s and daytime highs of 65 north to 70 south are expected. The EURO even shows some upper 30s early Friday in my northern counties.

The weekend opens the door to a pronounced period of mild and largely dry weather that lasts for 8–10 days. Saturday and Sunday (Mother's Day), look spectacular with lots of dry air leading to sunshine and warm afternoons. Highs both days should range from 75 north to 80 south!

The EURO meteogram shows us getting our first real taste of summery conditions next week, with multiple highs in the 80s and even a day close to 90 showing up Thursday, May 15th.

The GFS is on board with a scaled back scenario, but much like the EURO brings a cooler brand of weather back for the start of the week beginning May 19th.

One of the primary reasons for the warmth is the surface pressure anomalies expected next week. Pressures are low, which means the higher pressure that would be associated with colder dense air is not in play. That pumps southerly winds into the central U.S., and well into Canada.

Here's the resulting temperature departures of such a pattern.

At least initially, the dynamics for precipitation will be lacking. The next 5 days through Tuesday morning, the EURO shows this for total precipitation.

PWAT'S (Available water vapor) Friday, show the lack of moisture that leads to the dry period.

By the 14th, moisture has made a significant resurgence through the Midwest and Great Lakes. This may open the gate for some thunderstorms and improved rain chances in a week or so. Something to watch.

The GEFS week 2 significant supercell composite at least hints at the possibility of severe weather somewhere in the central Midwest, mid-May.

Well, the bottom line in this post is that we are on the road to a lengthy period of nice weather, and I am fired up about that. Happy Thursday and roll weather...TS