GOING OUR WAY...YES!

We finally saw some sunshine Thursday, but it was a struggle to get it in the south, where it took much of the day to break through. The fact is, it finally did and that's a sign that Friday is going to be an excellent drying day with low humidity and plenty of strong late May sunshine. On top of that good news, my suspicions of a strong Great Lakes high keeping us dry this Memorial Day weekend seems to be on track, leaving the area with pleasantly cool weather conditions right on through Monday. Things are going our way. More on that in just a shake.

First, (for those unaware) we are in the heart of severe weather season and will be for another month. Up to now, we've fared well, but that's not been the case in other parts of the country. Take a look at this plot of severe weather reports for 2025 to date. The Storm Prediction Center indicates there have been 10,452 cases of tornadoes, severe wind, or damaging hail. The Ohio and Tennessee Valleys have been at the epicenter of it all, as evidenced in the plots below

This has also been a big year for tornadoes to our southeast and for that matter much of the southern United States. Since 2010 the average count for twisters through May 21st is 600. This year the number is at 951. That's the second-highest total behind 2011 when 1,365 tornadoes had occurred at this point in the season. By the way, 2011 went on to see 2,240!

So far in 2025, there have been 21 killer tornadoes and 62 deaths. 27 of those fatalities occurred in the past week, thanks largely to the EF4 twister that hit London, Kentucky.

The plot below shows a strong concentration of this year's storms focused on SE Missouri and NE Arkansas into southern Illinois, Indiana, and parts of Kentucky.

Illinois has already seen 104 tornadoes, but those to the SE of the Quad Cities have been weak, generally EF0 and EF1. 12 storms in the southern part of the state have been EF2 or greater.

After a very active and deadly season in Iowa last year, only 11 tornadoes (all weak) have been reported. It's been exceptionally quiet in the central and eastern part of the state. Let's keep it that way.

Looking ahead, these are the supercell composite parameters based on the CFSv2 model. It's a tool to define where severe weather prospects will be greatest the next 3 weeks. The next week quiet, week 2 begins to show some potential, especially at the end of the period, and week 3 looks active June 5-12th. Time will tell.

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BREAKING DOWN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

As I alluded to at the beginning of this post, the GFS has done a dramatic flip-flop and has now joined the camp of the EURO and turned a wet weekend into one that now looks dry. This was my preferred solution and what the EURO has advertised for several days. Models are now in good agreement, the area of high pressure delivers dew points going into Sunday that are only in the upper 30s to mid 40s. That forces the baroclinic boundary and its active weather further southwest. That means crisp nights and pleasantly cool, dry days. No need for the AC.

The EURO indicates this for precipitation through Memorial Day. There is a slight chance of a brief shower towards evening Monday in the far south, however it's a 30% shot at best. We are fortunate to miss out on the stormy, wet mess that's shown to our southwest.

As for temperatures, the EURO meteogram shows highs in the mid to upper 60s all the way through Monday. It's possible that with the dry air and a day or two with plenty of sun, readings might over-perform a bit and at least reach 70-72. After all, in less than a month, the days start getting shorter. Old Sol is mighty strong right now.

That will do if for now, happy Friday and for that matter, happy weather for the holiday weekend ahead. Let's get ready to rumble. Roll weather...TS