HIGH, DRY, SOON TO BE STUFFED
The weather outside is anything but frightful this Thanksgiving Day. That's only appropriate considering how uneventful most of the year has been due to the prolonged drought that's gripped the area, especially my counties in Iowa. Thanks to the Iowa Mesonet I was able to create a graphic showing rainfall deficits since the beginning of 2023. Many parts of eastern Iowa have built up departures of 10–14 inches.
The dryness extends into the previous year 2022. Looking at the period April 1st 2022 to November 21st, 2023 I was able to consistently find deficits of 20–25 inches in southern Iowa. That is massive!
In 2023 alone, Iowa City has measured just 22.25 inches of rain. That has it only .19 inches from tying 1955 as the driest year on record. With more than a month to go in the year, the pattern looking dry, and the fact December is a relatively dry month anyway, I think Iowa City has a strong chance of establishing the record for driest year ever.(Records in Iowa City go back to 1893). This sets up a very serious issue for next year's growing season if spring rains don't measure up. By the way, for perspective, the wettest year in Iowa City history was 1993 when 62.89 inches of rain was measured. Normal is 35.74.
Cedar Rapids is another location that is really struggling. The yearly rainfall total there of 24.3 inches is 14.51 inches below the average for 2023.
Over the next 2 weeks, the GFS shows departures of an inch or more over the majority of my area.
The EURO weeklies through January 6th show the Midwest and Ohio Valley bone dry due to a W/NW flow aloft. It's a real challenge to get moisture into the middle of the nation with such strong westerlies, no doubt tied to this year's El Niño.
RUFFLED TURKEY FEATHERS...
The only issue with the weather on the table this Thanksgiving (and it's minor) are the winds. They will rustle old Tom's feathers, gusting 20-25+ at times. They will also be turning to the north thanks to a cold front that passes with just some scattered clouds and no precipitation.
What the cold front does do is drop temperatures a good 10 degrees, making for a cold weekend with highs in the low to mid 30s from north to south. Low will be well into the 20s.
We're still looking at the potential for some light snow Sunday as an elongated trough of low pressure emerges from the Plains. It should scoop up just enough moisture for clouds and a period of light snow. Here's the 500mb trough and its energy crossing the Midwest Sunday.
Sunday's snow potential has been on again, off again. Even when it's on, it hasn't been all that impressive, with accumulations on the order of an inch (perhaps 2 in a couple spots). Today, fresh data suggest a slightly deeper, more organized system that has a bit more moisture. The GFS which went to nothing for snow in Tuesday night's run is back up to an inch today. The EURO has increased to the 1-2 inch range. I'm still a bit concerned about additional fluctuations lowering those amounts, but at least we're closer to the event now and data is improving. I would say confidence is moderate we'll see enough snow to whiten things up by Sunday morning. Here's what models are suggesting.
The EURO
The GFS
THE GEM
Behind the snow, a healthy dump of cold air is expected Sunday night and early next week. These are the projected highs on the EURO Monday. That will open your eyes.
These are wind chills Monday night on the GFS. That will make you groan!
Temperatures are shown 15–20 degrees below normal.
Well, that gets us past the Holiday Weekend and into next week. Have a safe, happy holiday and make sure to count and appreciate your blessings. I'm sure we all have plenty to be thankful for. At least for now, we're high, dry, and hopefully soon to be stuffed. Roll weather...TS
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