HOT AS A FIRECRACKER...

Warm, humid weather found its way back into the area Thursday, just in time to usher in the upcoming holiday weekend. In a few spots, scattered late day and evening thunderstorms popped up on the nose of the heat, especially in my counties in NE and EC Iowa. The slow movement of the storms produced some torrential downpours. A couple flash flood warnings were issued for parts of Dubuque and NW Jackson counties, where some 2-3 inch totals were observed.

Here's the Doppler rainfall estimates showing the isolated but heavy pockets of rain in those 2 counties.

Radar around 8:00pm Thursday shows the storms confined to the area north of HWY 30 in Iowa. Storms quickly collapsed and dissipated after sunset.

Come the morning of the 4th, 850 temperatures will already be nearing +20C, indicating abundant warm air aloft that CAPs the atmosphere all day. That should ensure abundant sunshine and a dry day for parades, barbecues, and fireworks. On the other hand, temperatures will be a factor, with highs in the range of 90–94 degrees. Fortunately, dew points will mix out significantly in the afternoon, allowing them to dip into the upper 50s and low 60s. Thus, the heat index will be minimal, about the same as the actual temperature. No matter how you slice it, it will be hot as a firecracker in the direct sun. The HRRR shows highs that look like this.

Saturday, tropical moisture surges into the region and combines with 88-90 degree heat to create sticky conditions and most likely some thunderstorms. A few may pop up in the afternoon instability, but a more organized threat is expected towards evening when a weak front approaches. It provides the forcing and CAPE over 2,000 j/kg that should make for fairly widespread coverage of storms. Here's the CAPE that is showing up on the 3K NAM during the mid-afternoon.

Here's some of the suggested rainfall totals from a few models through Saturday night.

The EURO

The GFS

The 3k NAM

Sunday, the boundary that causes Saturday's storm potential washes out over the far south. That, along with potential outflow boundaries, will lead to a chance of additional showers and storms, especially during peak heating. The area from the Quad Cities southeast is currently most favored Sunday. Coverage looks to be rather hit-and-miss. Overall, there should be many dry hours and some spots will avoid any rain altogether. Temperatures are likely to be a bit cooler, ranging from the lower 80s north to the mid to upper 80s south.

Myself, I just got back from Kansas City, where I moved my daughter over the past few days. The job is done, but it was go, go, go, for 4 days. I want to thank Nick Stewart for filling in admirably for me during that time.

Also, I ran into a "huge mess" with U-Haul, who called me less than 24 hours before the move to tell me I didn't have a truck at the location in Rock Island I had reserved it from more than a month ago. They just gave it to someone else and told me I might have to drive up to 100 miles in any direction to get another one. (This after I had arranged time for movers to pack the load at a specific time Monday, since my daughter's lease expired that day). Fortunately, a tremendously nice man, Michael Tumbleson of Kewanee entered the picture and managed to find me a truck and actually drove it to Annawan, Illinois where I met him for the hand off. That still added 2 hours of additional drive time, but if not for him and all the work he did to scrounge up a truck, I have no idea how things would have turned out. There are still good people out there who have huge, caring hearts. Michael used much of his valuable time Sunday afternoon to solve a stranger's problem, and I will be forever grateful for the kindness and generosity he showed me. Thank you, my friend! Roll weather...TS

MICHAEL TUMBELSON AND I AFTER HE PERSONALLY DROPPED OFF MY U-HAUL IN ANNAWAN