IF IT AIN'T ONE THING...

It looked a whole lot better on the thermometer Tuesday, thanks to highs in many areas that remained in the low 80s north of I-80. The only spots to clip 90 was the area south of a line from Keokuk to Monmouth. While it may have been cooler, it certainly wasn't any less humid, with dew points again into the 70s. At least we took the edge off. Below you can see readings at mid-afternoon.

On the topic of pure heat, something we don't see much of anymore is 100 degree temperatures. Climate change has resulted in significantly more water vapor, making it harder for temperatures to reach that benchmark. While that may seem like a good thing, that's not necessarily the case. In the past decade, I've seen numerous cases of dew points reaching 80 degrees or more. During periods of significant heat, that's lowered highs to the mid 90s, but the additional water vapor increased heat index values to 110 to 115 degrees. That's far worse than the dust bowl days of the 30s when it was common to reach 100 to 105, but with dew points only in the 50s, it minimized the heat index. In other words, when it reached 105 in the 30s, that's what it felt like, 105 and not much more.

When you look back at temperatures since 1890, it's readily apparent the 30s were far and away the decade that all heat and associated records are compared to. 32 of the all-time record highs and low temperatures that stand today were attained in the 1930s, most for heat. The last 25 years have been rather uneventful, as increased water vapor has tempered not only extreme heat but cold as well. The overall range of temperatures has been compressed on both ends.

Below you can see the year the highest temperature ever reported for each individual state. 1936 shows up frequently in the Midwest, but in Iowa 1934 is number one and in Illinois it's 1954 that takes the cake. It's important to remember that air conditioning was in its infancy in the 30s and many people did not have it. Homes remained so hot at night that people often slept outdoors, where readings might dip below 90 by a few hours.

These are the actual hottest temperatures measured in every state. In Iowa, it's 118 at Keokuk, set July 20th, 1934. In Illinois, East St. Louis hit 117 July 14th, 1954.

When you think of what we just experienced, (3 days no worse than 91), you really have to feel for our ancestors who lived through some incredibly tough times, hot or cold. Can you imagine the whining, hype, and sensationalism that would go on today, with a high of 118? How would we survive? Social media would be off the charts. I can see the headlines now. What a world!

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STUCK IN A RUT, FOR NOW...

Back to the here and now, the reason for the cooler temperatures Tuesday was a line of storms that dumped 1–3 inches of rain (more in a few spots) on the NW half of the region. Look at the tight cut-off NW of the Quad Cities. The storms generated enough cool outflow to push the front through all but my SE counties.

Thanks to the storms in the northwest, our weather was relatively quiet Tuesday due to debris clouds and lower CAPE (Instability). However, by evening, storms had newly developed and were arching near and north of the boundary that remained over my southeast counties. These are likely going to dump some localized have rain overnight that could be in that 1-2 inch range. The HRRR shows the primary swath, generally near and south of I-80. Radar trends indicate it may end up 25 miles further north, impacting the Quad City metro and surrounding area overnight.

Wednesday, the boundary causing Tuesday night's storms slowly advances north. This ensures another push of warm muggy air. Despite plenty of humidity, forcing is generally weak, meaning storms should not be widespread but are possible in spots. Many will miss them. Being air mass driven, they are likely to be hit-and-miss and slow moving where they pop. With so much moisture, they are likely to be efficient rain producers. With less in the way of debris clouds, highs should be warmer, ranging from 86 north to 91 south. Heat index values in the mid to upper 90s are possible near and south of I-80.

Thursday odds are that the area gets deeper into the heat and a hot sultry day is on tap. I look for highs in most areas to hit the upper 80s far north, to the low 90s elsewhere. However, a stronger CAP looks likely, which should limit storm coverage to scattered at best during the day. With the CAP in place, CAPE (instability) should reach potent levels before what appears to be a significant short wave arrives towards evening. This has some severe weather potential Thursday evening and I would think SPC would note that in a slight risk outlook soon. Of course, with water vapor pushing 2 inches, any decent updraft will again bring downpours.

Behind Thursday night's storms, forcing looks minimal Friday and Saturday with a typical late June air mass in place keeping things toasty. While a stray storm is possible, I'm not expecting much that's organized until later Sunday afternoon or evening. By then we are back into hot soupy weather and, depending on timing, another round of active storms is on the table. Again, strong storms and heavy rain are possible.

Trends are indicating the convective boundary (ring of fire) does inch northward the next couple of days, so the heavier rains Wednesday night through Sunday night may be more impactful from my northwest counties into Minnesota and Wisconsin. Outflow boundaries may have a say in that, releasing cool air from repeated rounds of storms. Wherever the boundary is most consistently situated is where the more active storms and heavier rains will fall. Here's what some models are currently advertising for rain during that period.

The EURO ensemble

The GFS ensemble

The national blend of models.

That's more than enough for now. Have a special day and roll weather everybody....TS