IF YOU BUILD IT, YOU KNOW WHAT HAPPENS...

It took a heck of a long time but we finally built the moisture with the forcing necessary to produce showers and thunderstorm. And, as the saying goes, if you build it, the rain will come. So far 1.5 to 3 inch amounts heave been pretty common.

That's a nice upgrade from what fell 24 hours earlier.

We're far from done as another healthy system quickly enters the picture Friday afternoon or evening. Since its arriving only 24 hours before the first storm, moisture levels will have fallen by Friday morning along with temperatures. It's imperative that they both make a fast return late Friday afternoon before the primary dynamics enter the picture towards evening. As it stands now, the HRRR shows highs of 60-72 south of I-80. That means the warm front probably does not reach I-80.

As a result, the rich moisture with dew points as high as the upper 60s are confined to HWY 34 south. Only upper 40s in the north, that won't get it done for severe weather in that part of my area.

However, way down in SE Iowa and WC Illinois it will be muggy with CAPE shown at 3549 j/kg. in Ft. Madison. That can definitely get the job more than done down that way.

In fact the Significant Tornado parameter reaches 5-6, which is nothing to sneeze at.

So basically, surface based storms, with all modes of severe weather appear to be most likely from Washington Iowa to Mt Pleasant then east to Galva, Illinois south. SPC shows the level 3 enhanced risk almost to I-80 in southern Iowa. Level 2 slight, reaches almost to Dubuque then down into western Illinois.

Right now, unless the system speeds up and gets the warm front further north of I-80 (something I doubt), I think as I did yesterday, that the greatest severe weather threat is confined to the area roughly along and south of HWY 34. Chances really fall off near I-80 (and my northern counties) where there is little if any CAPE. I think SPC will indicate that trend that in their next update. I think anything north of HWY 30 is very contingent on heating and the warm front getting at least that far north. We will know more by mid morning Friday when the mesocale details become clear.

As for additional rain, I think the heavier amounts later Friday and Friday evening end up over my NW and SE counties with a dry slot imposing it's will in my center counties where the low ends up tracking. Here's what models are indicating for rain totals later Friday through Friday night.

The EURO

The GFS

The HRRR

The Rapid Refresh

The Canadian RDPS 10K

The National Model Blend

It still looks like by the end of this wet period 2-3 inches of rain has a good chance of falling over the balance of my area with locally higher amounts. That is a big deal. with current soil moisture conditions favoring drought.

Finally, the trough responsible for the rain and unsettled conditions lifts out Saturday. Cold air advection will be in full force with brisk northwest winds. Highs will be stuck in the range of 46 to 52 from NW to SE. It is also possible periods of clouds that blow through could produce scattered passing light afternoon showers.

Easter Sunday looks a bit better for the bunny today with considerable sunshine and highs of 50-55 north to south. A chlly breeze of 15-25 will add a little extra chill, especially in the shade. At least we'll get a chance to let that beautiful rain soak into the ground, green up the grass, and get those leaves and flowers going. How sweet it is. Roll weather...TS.

By the way, some long time chasing buddies of mine, Kholby Martin and Ethan Schisler took this image of a tornado crossing the road directly in front of them. Those boys sniff them out like cookies.

Something else Kholby does with ease is catch fish, big fish. Here's a 5.5 pound bass he reeled in about a week ago down Galesburg way. Below a buddy of his, Hunter Litchfield holds up a 17 inch crappie that says "eat me all over it"!

A coule of those filleted fried crappies, a batch of fresh deep fried morel mushrooms, fried potatoes and rhubarb pudding (done right) with a dollup of ice cream are one of my all time favorite meals. Pick your beverage. You can only get it in spring. Dang, my mouth is watering and my eyes are bugging. It always tastes better when you catch the slabs and hunt the mushrooms yourself. That's manly stuff. Now git....