INTO THE JUNGLE BABY...

All week long, I've been beating the drum that an intense round of heat and humidity was aimed at the area. Friday, the trigger was pulled and the steam released. Like it or not, it's blown by the door step, and we are going full bore into the jungle. Call Rambo!

The heat dome is so expansive that at least 25 states have heat related warnings, watches, or advisories in effect...that's half of the country. Smack-dab in the middle of it all is the Midwest.

From the looks of it, the ridge responsible for the heat will remain in a stable strong state, over the eastern third of the U.S. much of next week. Through next Thursday, the EURO shows highs in the Quad Cities of 94–98 degrees.

That does not include the added impacts of deep tropical moisture, which is no doubt going to raise the heat index (how it feels) to as high as 105, maybe a touch more in spots. By way of integrated water vapor, you can see the deep moisture channeled over the Midwest that will produce dew points in the low to mid 70s Saturday.

The volatile combination of hot air and high water vapor will create heat index values on the GFS Saturday that are 101–104 degrees.

The 3k NAM, with slightly higher dew points, is more like 107-108 degrees. I think we should mix out more than the 3k anticipates, so I expect those lower 101 to 104 values on the EURO are more rooted in reality. Either way, it's not going to be pleasant.

Below, you can see the ridge over the east feeds on itself and shows little propensity to break down through Thursday. Thus, summer is in full swing until it breaks down.

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COMING UNDER FIRE...

One thing that will be of importance going forward will be our proximity to the NW fringe of the heat dome. As you've all heard by now, that is the region known as the "ring of fire". Under the core of the heat, where we'll reside through at least Monday, the air is so warm aloft it's CAPPED, which thwarts thunderstorm development. Thus, the next few days should see abundant sunshine and very little chance of rain as the blow torch prevails.

It's easy to see the location of the ring of fire by the high levels of water vapor pooled within it Monday. Below you can see available moisture of 2 or more inches laid out from northwest Iowa through SE Minnesota into Lake Superior. That will be the sweet spot for storms Monday and beyond as it wavers around, blocked by the stagnant long wave pattern. Thunderstorm clusters known as mesoscale convective systems should frequent the area where the moisture is maxed out, and the CAP can break, especially at night when the atmosphere cools aloft and the nocturnal jet intensifies. Several nights of storms, especially any that can lead to training, could produce excessive rains.

It still seems that the greatest threat of these 3-7 inch gully washers will be just to the NW of my area. That's not a certainty, as storm clusters from a night or two of intense activity could generate cold pools or outflow boundaries that cause the boundary to sink. That's something my local area will need to keep an eye on Tuesday and beyond of next week, especially my northern counties.

The national blend of models (NBM) shows the active storm track NW of us through the day Monday, with heavy rain totals well to the north in Minnesota and Upper Michigan.

After that, a southward shift of the ring of fire is noted that brings heavier rains as far south as my NW counties. If things evolve the way it looks, the pattern should turn more active for at least the northern half of my area the middle or end of next week. Small but important mesoscale features yet to be determined will decide our fate, not only with rain but temperatures as well. Here's the NBM rain totals through next week and the end of June. Quite an uptick in the north after Monday.

Meantime, it's game on for the initial volley of intense summer heat. Considering today is the first full day of summer, it's right on schedule. As my grandad said to me as a child regarding the summer downpours, "at least you don't have to shovel them, son". I've never known him to be wrong about that! Have a sensational weekend and roll weather.....TS