IRISH LUCK, A WEE BIT EARLY...

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IRISH LUCK, A WEE BIT EARLY...

The luck of the Irish (or something similar) was with us early this March as a healthy late winter storm spins by just to the east. The sytem has defied prediction for several days with the the EURO showing this for snow just 2 days ago.

Now we are down to this, the old nothing burger.

As I say every time with closed systems coming out of the southwest, phasing between the northern and southern stream jets is always a challenge for models to resolve. It often results in headaches. This situation was no different, not showing its hand until late in the game. In the end, the phasing was slower and further east keeping the track to the southeast and sparing us a heavy wet snow.

While my far southeastern counties may get in on some light rain which quickly transitions to snow Friday, amounts are likely to be minimal, a dusting at best. The rest of us will see a blustery raw day with highs mainly in the low 40s. Here's what the latest models are depicting for snow accumulations.

The EURO

The GFS

Further east, the snow won't be so light in parts of northeast Illinois where 2-8 inches+ are possible. Chicago which appeared in the heart of the storm yesterday is now on the fringe of it, although 2-4" amounts are looking likely, heaviest on the south side. From there into northern Indiana and southeast Michigan, winter storm warnings are now in effect. Aside from the snowy aspect of the storm, heavy rains further south could cause flooding and flood watches are out from Missouri all the way to Ohio.

These are the precipitation totals suggested. Some real soakers not far off to the southeast.

The EURO

The GFS

Following the storms departure, the coming weekend will be a keeper. Under a mix of sun and clouds it looks relatively mild by early March standards. Highs will range from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south of I-80. Sunday night a few showers could sneak into the picture as a week disturbance approaches from the west. Ahead of it Monday another spring-like day is anticipated with highs in the mid to upper 50s in most areas.

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COLD IS COMING...

Tuesday a cold front passes ushering in high pressure. As northerly winds deepen around the strengthening high, a cooling trend begins that grows stronger with time. Here's the temperature departures the next 15 days in 5 day increments. See how temperatures grow progressively colder.

Day 1-5 March 2-7

Day 5-10 March 7-12

Day 10-15 March 12-17

With the cold, chances of a late snow or two in the 10-15 day period are enhanced over the northern half of the nation. The EURO ensemble mean showing this for total snow within the 15 day period ending March 17th.

If that upsets you, you won't like what the EURO Weeklies show for snow the next 46 days, ending April 17th. Man, that is a snowy signal to say the least.

As you would expect, with the weeklies indicating that much snow there is plenty of cold. Here's the 46 day temperature departures ending April 17th. Ugh, most of the country is well below normal!

As bad as the weekly means were for chill , the control is even worse. It's incredibly brisk over the same period showing average daily departures of 10-15 degrees...that's per day over 46 days. I mean that is ugly, beyond extreme!

The projected snowfall in the control is literally "out of control". Look at this forecast for the next 46 days! Winter is setting up to go out like a lion. Honestly, this run of the weeklies has to be the most incredible for winter weather I've ever seen over a 6 week period. Hopefully trends ease a bit in coming weeks because it sure doesn't look like spring will come early this year.

That's all for now. Happy Friday everybody and roll weather....TS