ISN'T THAT SPECIAL...

Yesterday, model guidance was quite excited about the prospects for thunderstorms with the possibility of locally heavy rains Wednesday night through Friday over the northern half of my area, especially north of I-80. Some models were indicating amounts well in excess of 2 inches. The latest trends have been to push the more significant rains more to the north, enough so that much of my area may be on the outside looking in at this first round of convection. Here's what the deterministic models are now showing for rain totals. As you can see, amounts really diminish rapidly south of HWY 20 and the majority of my counties.

The EURO

The GFS

The Canadian GEM

This is a substantial shift north on the heavy rain shield from 24 hours ago, but as you can see there is fairly good consistency in the general idea.

In a case like this where a major change has recently occurred in guidance, I like to look at the ensembles of the models which in the case of the EURO include over 50 members, all with slightly different inputs and solutions to see if they are indicating the same sort of outcome. Here's where they stand on amounts.

The EURO ensemble

The GFS ensemble

Finally, the short range ensemble forecast.

There are enough members further south to bring rain down to about I-80, the GFS ensembles being the most aggressive with that trend. I'm more in line with the EURO and SREF ensembles, which keep any half inch totals centered more on the area closer to HWY 20 in the far north. My pick of all the solutions would be the deterministic EURO which again looks like this. A nothingburger for most areas!

No matter how you play this, the heavy rains of 1–2 inches plus Wednesday night through Friday are focused on far northern Iowa into southern Minnesota and WC Wisconsin. We should dodge the excessive rain bullet.

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UP GO THE TEMPERATURES... .

The primary reason for the shift northward is the position of a warm front late Monday. See how the HRRR has highs close to 90 from NE Iowa into SW Wisconsin.

It will be on the northern fringe of the heat that storms erupt in "the ring of fire" Further south in my area it will be a summery day Wednesday with highs of 88-90 and increasing humidity. That will create instability, but a CAPPED environment should put the lid on storms. On the simulated water vapor imagery of the HRRR, you can see in the deep greens where moisture is pooled where the CAP is weaker over northern Iowa into Minnesota.

About 8:00 p.m. the simulated infra-red satellite shows storms lighting up in dark red in that prime area.

By the time they depart, the HRRR shows more than 2 inches of rain near Decorah in NE Iowa.

Thursday looks rather similar to Wednesday with another day in the mid to upper 80s with even higher humidity thanks to dew points in the mid to perhaps upper 60s. A few storms could bleed into the far north late in the day or evening, but the CAP looks to remain strong elsewhere, bringing another day of largely dry weather.

Friday you guessed it, warm muggy conditions continue along with highs in the mid to upper 80s. One thing to watch is a cold front that does make a run at the area Friday evening. That's usually an optimal time for storms to develop ahead of the front. However, guidance is not showing much in the way of development. Maybe some scattered storms at that time in the north.

With the front east of the area Saturday and Sunday, forcing for any storms passes and temperatures turn cooler with dew points lowering about 10 degrees. Temperatures return to the range of 78-83 Saturday and 76-81 Father's Day Sunday. Looks like a fine day to treat dad to a deluxe hot dog (or maybe even a steak).

Next week, the front turns north again, allowing another opportunity for showers and storm to return later in the day. Highs will likely jump back into the 80s, about where they should be.

Prepare for a noticeable warm-up today, with highs about 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday. Good corn growing conditions. Have a solid hump day and roll weather...TS