IT'S GOOD TO BE TIMELY...

For the majority of the past 3 months, major storm systems and their precipitation shields have stayed largely to the south of my local area. You can see that manifest itself in the rainfall departures of the past 90 days/3 months. There are a lot of places from southern Oklahoma to southern Missouri and Kentucky with rainfall surpluses of 9–13 inches over that period.

Further north, where high pressure and subsidence has ruled. That's produced rainfall deficits from Dubuque to the west of Cedar Rapids of 2–5 inches. This closer perspective shows the sharp cut-off between the haves and have-nots.

While many parts of my area are near to below normal on rainfall, the numbers are deceptive. For example, of the 9.87 inches since March 1st in Dubuque, nearly half came in just 4 rains (4.60 inches). Fortunately, when the rains were needed they came as timely soakers, falling when they were most needed. (Clutch).

It's the same story in the Quad Cities. While amounts are heavier there at 11.56 inches since March 1st, more than half the rain 6.52 inches has come in 5 days. Talk about feast or famine.

I bring this up because we are going into another one of these strong NW flow episodes that have dominated spring. Watch the evolution of the 500mb jet Friday into next Tuesday. You can clearly see energy digging southeast out of Canada, morphing into a deep closed low over the Great Lakes. That's pretty impressive for this late in the season.

Look what that does to precipitation across the central part of the nation the next 2 weeks. That should look familiar because it's more of what I just showed you above. This pattern has been extremely persistent, and it's not showing signs of breaking down any time soon.

Here's a closer look at the precipitation departures shown on the EURO through June 20th. Most of my area is shown 1–2 inches below normal.

The GFS is actually worse if it verifies.

This is not what you would call a toasty pattern, either. The GFS continues to show below normal temperatures the next 15 days, especially week 1.

Week 1 temperature departures ending June 12th

Week 2 temperature departures June 13th-20th.

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THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...

Near term, Friday looks uneventful, with partly sunny skies and highs generally in the mid to upper 70s.

Saturday, a short wave makes a run across Missouri into Illinois. Showers and a perhaps a few thunderstorms are expected late in the day and into the evening. The south, closer to the best forcing, has the best chance of seeing rain, which at this time appears to be light, 1/4 inch or less. The GFS seems to have some convective feedback issue that's contaminating its totals, showing a band of rain and storms that lays down a swath of 1-2 inch rains near I-80.

The GFS

The EURO and 3k NAM do not show the feature, and I'm discounting the GFS solution. Here's whats shown for rain totals on those 2 models.

The EURO

The 3k NAM

If the GFS solution somehow comes to fruition, Saturday would be cool, with readings in the mid to upper 60s due to clouds and rain cooled air. With its far drier solution the EURO gets highs into the mid 70s before any rain, which is my preferred outcome.

Once by, the big upper air low I showed spinning in from the northwest sends a cold front into the area Sunday. There should be adequate forcing for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it in the afternoon. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s before cooler air arrives Sunday night.

Monday the cold core of the upper air low is close by driving steep lapse rates and the formation of instability clouds and even some showers Monday, perhaps even Tuesday in the NE. Highs will sink into the upper 60s north to the low to mid 70s far south. It will turn breezy as well. By Tuesday morning, the GFS shows widespread 40s as the coolest air passes overhead.

Slowly but surely the tough shifts into SE Canada next week and a return flow to southwesterly winds will deliver some warmer more seasonal air into the Midwest the latter half of next week. Rain chances look slim to none Tuesday through Friday of next week. Happy Friday to one and all and of course, roll weather...TS