KATYDIDS, CRICKETS, & CICADAS

We've had a big reminder this week with lows in the 40s that fall is just around the corner. Back before the days of computers and modern technology, a great many of our ancestors relied on weather folklore to get an idea of what was coming and when. Birds, insects and other wild creatures played a role in this process. Steve Gottschalk, of Lowden, Iowa, is my go-to guy for weather folklore. He's been collecting data on such things for over 60 years.

A CICADA

Steve just informed me that he has 45 years worth of Cicada data regarding a saying that indicates "you can expect the first frost 90 days after the cicadas start singing". He heard his first Cicada song the 29th of June, which implies our first frost this fall would be early, close to September 27 or 28th. That would be 2–3 weeks ahead of what the 30-year mean currently is. Using his method since 2000 (the past 25 years), Steve has found the average first date of frost is 91 days after the first song, just one day more than what the folklore states. That is remarkable, and that is why I'm remarking on it!

A KATYDID

A couple of decades ago, Steve also begun observing Katydids, which also sing a song. His records go back to 2006, but several years he did not hear any, so his actual database only includes 13 individual years since 2006. Based on Katydids, folklore indicates the first frost can be expected 6 weeks (42 days) after the first song. This year he heard them the 21st of August, which means a frost would occur October 3rd, again quite early. Anyway, since 2006 his records show the first frost comes 43 days after the first song, instead of the 42 indicated by folklore. Again, a statistical difference of a day based on the sound of an insect centuries ago is quite impressive. Here's to the inquiring minds of our ancestors.

Steve also mentioned it's a big year for crickets, and his research indicates a large population of crickets portends a snowy winter. He's currently looking into spiders and will have an update soon on what that means for the winter ahead soon.

By the way, Steve has been taking detailed records since 1961 and is an award-winning NWS observer. All of his records have been scanned by them. He has compiled 6 nature journals, several astronomy journals full of sunspot observations, plus 34 weather journals chock-full of daily data. He never misses, and often meticulously records observations for every hour of the day. On top of that, he has a library of 2300 books that are all related to meteorology, climatology, folklore. He has an original Farmer's Almanac that I held in my hands that dates back to 1804. A weather junky could get lost in his place, it's like a mini-museum. Thanks for all you do, Steve, you are an interesting man with a passion.

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HAPPY HOLIDAYS...

All of this talk of frost and snow, has me thinking about the holiday's, of which we have one coming up this weekend. It gets off to a good start thanks to a backdoor cold front which slipped into the region Thursday. Behind it, a Great Lakes high with slightly cooler and drier air will ease into the region before stalling. As it currently appears, the high will be strong enough to keep any significant forcing to the west and south, limiting heavy rain chances. However, the lingering proximity of the weak front could produce some isolated afternoon showers Friday, but chances will be very low in any one spot. A similar set-up is in place for Saturday.

The way I see it, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies should hold through the weekend and Memorial Day itself. The GFS has at least a chance of some rain making it into the SW third of my area Sunday and Monday, but I'm thinking dry air and weak lift will hold it at bay. Stronger convergence in Missouri should rob moisture from any showers that might reach SE Iowa, further hindering development. Through Saturday, the HRRR shows this for rain totals.

For the period Friday through Monday, the EURO suggests this for rain totals. I still think this is a worst case scenario, and even if it verifies, the majority of the period (90%) ends up rain free.

Temperature should mainly be in the range of 75 NE to 81 SW Friday through Monday with little change in the overall air mass. The pleasant readings are likely to be with us through Tuesday of next week, along with minimal rain chances.

Wednesday, a deep trough is expected to dig into the Midwest, bringing another stout punch of cool air. Ahead of the cold front, a more organized threat of showers and storms should develop. Recent runs of the EURO and GFS have consistently shown a closed upper air low developing within the trough along with a strong pressure gradient. A significant drop in temperatures continues to look likely Wednesday night and Thursday. Gusty winds, clouds, and some widely scattered showers should make for a raw day Thursday. Some places could remain in the 50s for highs, with lows at least in the low 40s. At 500mb, the EURO is quite impressive with the system's structure. That does not at all look like a summer system.

The Climate Prediction Center agrees, showing very high chances (80-90%) of below normal temperatures in the 6-10 day period September 3-7th.

Aside from some isolated light showers this weekend (very much hit-and-miss, and low in coverage), our weather looks fit for a holiday. Have a good one everybody and roll weather...TS