LATE DAY STORM THREAT
NOW MORE THAN EVER I NEED YOUR HELP WITH OPERATING EXPENSES
THE FUTURE OF THE SITE DEPENDS ON YOU.
Hi everyone, as you know, TSwails.com is a no-pay site; existing on voluntary subscriptions or personal donations. If you find value in the site, I'm asking kindly that you make the donation you feel is worthy. I'm suggesting $20.00, roughly a nickel a day. Less than 5% of my readers donate, so your gift is not only appreciated, it helps immensely. Your contribution, whatever you can swing, supports the content, infrastructure, and operational costs. Thanks for anything you can do.
MONITORING A LATE DAY STORM THREAT
A conditional risk of severe thunderstorms remains over far eastern Iowa and much of northern Illinois for late today and early Thursday evening. There is still no guarantee storms will fire in my area, but the addition of sunshine and significant heating has increased the chances significantly with noon temperatures already in the mid 60s in SC Iowa. Record highs are likely in many areas. The major drawback in this set-up is moisture. Dew points are at best in the mid 40s. The HRRR does continue to show strong warm advection but never gets dews more than the low 50s.
Despite that issue, cold air aloft and steep lapse rates will punch into the region later this afternoon. Deep layer winds (shear) is very favorable for supercell development if storms can fire. The supercell index reaches 7 over far EC Iowa around 4:00pm., good for rotating storms.
The significant tornado parameter hits 4 just east of the Quad Cities and Clinton. That's impressive for February 8th.
The K index which shows thunderstorm potential is pushing 40 in EC Iowa and far western Illinois after 4:00pm.
CAPE, also reflective of instability is shown reaching a max. of 1,100 j/kg. on the HRRR
The updraft helicity product has several long tracked supercells racing across Wisconsin and northern Illinois.
There's even a decent tornado sounding near Savanna, Illinois late today. Very impressive 0-1km shear
So basically, the potential for all modes of severe weather exists if we can reach convective temperatures, which is looking more likely, especially near and east of the Mississippi. If it appears like that will happen, SPC may increase their outlook (or even issue a tornado watch) for some of the area in its mid-afternoon outlook. Any storms that do develop will be fast movers at more than 50 mph. This whole threat will all be out of the area by mid-evening. Keep an eye to the sky and roll weather...TS Additionally with my recent health issues, I very much need to reach my fund-raising goals. To keep things as they are, I'm in humble need of your donation to the site more than ever. If you use it and find value in it, please consider a contribution. Thanks to you who have already helped the cause!
