LET THE STORM BEGIN...

Happy new year to one and all! Let's make 2022 a great one! The long awaited snowstorm is set to engulf the region today as it ejects from the southwest. I've been sleeping in short shifts lately so I'm not going to get overly deep with this post. I will be back at early and will have live updates throughout the day (some in the snow) as we monitor the storms progress. I don't know about you but I'm ready to get it on and see what it's got!

Starting with the warnings, here's what I have for you as of late New Year's Eve night.

The winter storm severity index includes a high end moderate assessment from WPC

These are the latest official snowfall forecasts and probabilities from the NWS. They do not necessarily reflect my personal ideas which I will detail later.

The NWS expected snow range:

Expected NWS snowfall potential (specific totals):

NWS odds of 4 or more inches

NWS odds of 6 or more inches

NWS odds of 8 or more inches

The latest snowfall forecasts from individual models and my personal take can be found below. First this on weather school which has limited seating and is filling up with a total of just 50 seats available.

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SNOWFALL OUTPUT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT'S MODELS

These are not forecasts, just the raw output from individual models. We use these to establish trends and make specific forecasts. I will show you the options and follow up with my take below. These are in no particular order.

The GFS

The 3K NAM

The 12K NAM

The HRRR

The EURO

The GEM

As you can see by examining the 6 models above, even 12 hours before the snow there is still variance in the snow band, especially in the amounts. Most solutions favor SE Iowa with the heaviest totals and I'm in agreement with that. Where the major differences exist is with the amount of precipitation. The more of that, the higher the snowfall totals. Myself, I am leaning towards the lower end of the precipitation spectrum which incorporates the ideas of the EURO and Canadian GEM. Both are about 2 to 3 inches lower than the U.S. based models such as the GFS and 3K NAM. In the end a compromise an inch or 2 lower might be better. Below you can see the comparison between the the EURO on the left and the GFS on the right. I may be wrong but I think the EURO has the right idea with its lower amounts.

Here's the GEM vs the GFS...much like the EURO. In fact, I think the GEM may be closest of all the solutions. Who knows.

Anyway, I expect amounts will range from around 3 inches near HWY 20 to 7-9 inches near and south of HWY 34, highest in SE Iowa. The Quad Cities would be near the 6-7" threshold if trends hold.

My final thoughts include the hope that we see no significant changes in the next 12 hours. I'm not expecting it but if convection to the south robs anymore moisture than is currently indicated, amounts could go down slightly. On the other hand, banding due to frontogenesis could also generate some narrow corridors of higher snow that are not indicated due to the complex mesoscale features that are hard for models to detect. These would be most likely occur S/SW of I-80.

Last but not least, the snow seems to be coming in slower and it may take much of the morning for it reach the Quad Cities before spreading into the rest of my area. It tapers off from west to east in the evening hours and then the cold air takes over. Welcome to 2022 and roll weather...TS

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