LIKE PEACHES? WE GOT 'EM...

Before we get into the delicious batch of peaches mother nature is dropping off Friday, I think it is first worth commenting on the new drought index issued Thursday, and its relevance to the precipitation pattern indicated the next two weeks. In a nutshell, my local region is shown to be in moderate to severe drought. Not far away, parts of EC Illinois are in extreme drought.

With April on the horizon, there is plenty of time to make inroads improving the situation. April, May and June are three of our wetter months as thunderstorm season comes into play. It will all come down to where storm tracks are established.

For example, the next 2 weeks the 500mb pattern does not look to be very friendly for my local area with a 500mb pattern that features a W/NW flow aloft that is highly restrictive to allowing moisture, There appears to be a lot of high pressure dominance that blocks moisture all the way south to the Gulf of Mexico.

Both the GFS and EURO show well below normal precipitation departures into April 4th reaching 1.50 inches in spots locally.

The EURO is particularly ugly with some 3.50" departures in Arkansas and Louisiana. That's a hard signal that the Gulf is shut down and moisture could be too into the second week of April. That's a trend that needs to be broken asap.

If this ends up the way it looks like it could, drought conditions likely expand and worsen going into early April. I'm not pushing the house is burning agenda, but warmer temperatures, longer days, and low humidity like we could see enhances evaporation sucking up what little top soil moisture available. The longer we go without regular, beneficial rains the bigger this issue becomes going into the growing season. I see reasons for concern. but not for panic. If things are no better in 2 weeks I will put out a rain dance alert. Whatever it takes. Tune up your dance moves. Maybe trends will flip

2 PEACHY KEEN DAYS AHEAD...

Let's delve into the weekend which is peachy keen Friday and Saturday. At 7:00pm Thursday look at temperatures, dew points, and humidity for locations just to our west. It's still 95 at that late hour in Childress, Texas

Dew points in the range of 0 to 20 are common in the east slopes of the Rockies into the high plains promoting early season heat. (Dry air warms up)! Highs of 75 reached SW Iowa Thursday.

Look at the humidity levels in the western Plains, 5-10 percent. That's bone dry air for the evening hours.

The moral of the story is, that's the air mass that is steadily headed into the Midwest. Much of the existing snowfall was reduced to piles from the Quad Cities NE Thursday. With even warmer air, just a few passing clouds, and rapid melting early of what snow remains, Friday promises to be well above normal. A really nice winter day. 65 to 75 looks to be the range from NE to SW.

Saturday with humidity of 35 to 45 percent, temperature should easily mount an attack on 80 in the southwest. In the north, mid 70s are on the menu. With even drier air central Iowa could peak near 85. That's very early for highs like that. But, we'll take it.

Sadly, late Saturday night a front sinks into the north, clearing the south in the morning. It may squeeze out a few light rain showers but they look minimal with such dry air to overcome. The main story will be the turn to brisk NE winds. Coming off the extensive snow pack of Wisconsin that gets rid of the mild air in a hurry. Readings in the north may hold in the mid to upper 40s. The far south hits the low 60s mid morning dipping into the low 50s by noon. That's the solution shown on the EURO. The GFS is slower with the front and not as aggressive with the cool-down during the day. I am very leary of the GFS knowing that cold snow pack is lurking. I think that produces the impetus for faster cooling if the timing is right. No matter, it does turn breezy and cooler by Sunday night lasting into next Tuesday. Little if any precipitation is indicated next week. By then it will be officially spring and we can say farewell and shut the door on another Midwest winter. Don't let the door hit you in the buttocks! Also, enjoy the 2 "peaches" of weather days I'm sending your way. It's on me. Roll weather...TS

My sincere thank you to all of you who made contributions and have taken it upon yourself to support the site. TSwails is with you for another year. If you haven't contributed, and think the site has value, or you use it extensively, it is still possible to donate. Any contributions will go into a trust to be used to support the site going forward. Thanks again!

DONATE HERE