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LOOK WHAT THE DOG BROUGHT IN

NOW MORE THAN EVER I NEED YOUR HELP WITH OPERATING EXPENSES

THE FUTURE OF THE SITE DEPENDS ON YOU. 

Hi everyone, as you know, TSwails.com is a no-pay site; existing on voluntary subscriptions or personal donations. If you find value in the site, I'm asking kindly that you make the donation you feel is worthy. I'm suggesting $20.00, roughly a nickel a day. Less than 5% of my readers donate, so your gift is not only appreciated, it helps immensely. Your contribution, whatever you can swing, supports the content, infrastructure, and operational costs. Thanks for anything you can do.


THAT DARN DOG...

I've got a dog (Nimbus) and as lovable as that creature is, he won't wipe his feet and feels compelled to bring anything through the dog door that fits, including some very undesirable elements. Additionally, he can't make his mind up if he wants to be inside or outside, bouncing around from one to another. Numerous times I've seen him sleeping with his head outside the dog door and his rear end nice and toasty on the inside. When he decides he's coming in, he races full boar up the stairs, slides (literally) around the corner, picks up speed on the wood floor until he comes skidding to a stop at my feet. Then he sits there panting until I acknowledge what a super impressive effort that was. What a ham and I will say, very much spoiled rotten by Carolyn, Here he is trick or treating in the hood last Halloween. I'm surprised he's not drooling after swallowing a handful of Hershey Kisses!

Anyway, his indecisiveness and energetic nature reminds me of the weather when we'll see rain, sleet, snow, heat, and cold, all in a matter of a couple of days. Then nothing, 2 weeks of calm dry quiet conditions!


That's what's happened here recently. The first week of January was quiet. The next 6 days brought 2.5 inches of precipitation, (basically 25 inches of snow). Then another 8 days of unassuming weather before a second wet period with .77 inches of precipitation, all rain. Since then, the spigot has been shut off again, and today will make it 18 consecutive days with just .01 of an inch of rain. Another way to look at it is that while we've had 3.41inches of precipitation the last 44 days, 3.00 inches of it fell on just 5 days.

By the way, just for good measure, between the low of 15 below in Davenport January 24th, to a high of 66 February 8th, there was a temperature range of 81 degrees. If you figure wind chills into the equation, it felt about 100 degrees warmer February 8th than 3 weeks earlier in mid-January when wind chills were close to 40 below. That's quite an extreme period of weather in my book! I'll take the dog any day!


Well, one thing I've been expecting is a change to a colder and more active pattern Wednesday. While the models are in general agreement on the idea, there is still quite a bit of doubt as to how it plays out. One thing seems certain, we do have a couple more days when the daytime hours of Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry. Not only that, temperatures will remain mild and well above normal. Highs Tuesday should range from the low 40s north to the upper 40s south. Wednesday, with increasing cloudiness ahead of our next weather maker, highs could see a pretty good spread with a warm front cutting west to east south of I-80. Mid 40s are possible far north to mid 50s in the far south. That 50 degree line should not get any further north than I-80.


FINALLY, SOME PRECIPITATION

Confidence is high that a clipper like system will streak through the region Wednesday night. Currently, a low pressure is shown tracking across SE Iowa into central Illinois. Warm air advection should be significant north of the warm front and warm sector, which will be in place south of I-80. This implies the heavier precipitation band with the system will be across the north half of my area. Some models generate precipitation totals in this zone of 1/3 to 1/2 inch. There is also likely to be a focused area of strong lift that generates a narrow band of heavier QPF which could produce up to 7/10ths of an inch of precipitation. This banding is currently indicated somewhere north of HWY 30.


While temperatures will be warm enough for mainly rain in most spots, cold air advection and evaporative cooling could change the rain to all snow north of HWY 30, particularly closer to HWY 20. If the changeover takes place, there may be mesoscale banding where 2-3" of slushy snow could accumulate just in time for the morning rush Thursday. Outside this swath of snow, while a changeover may occur, it is likely to be brief and accumulations and impacts look minimal. The big challenge will be determining if and where that mesoscale band sets up. A focus for new data later Tuesday.


Here's what guidance is suggesting for snow totals. Remember, this is just raw model guidance and not an actual forecast. These are the products used to help create official forecasts. Most data suggests the heaviest snow band remains near or close to the HWY 20 corridor, with mainly a cold rain in the majority of my area. The model with the most bullish approach is the GFS which shows accumulations north of HWY 30.


The GFS

However, the 12k NAM, a U.S. based model like the GFS is much further north. Obviously it has slightly warmer thermal parameters and that makes all the difference.


The 12k NAM


The EURO. The latest EURO (OZ run), has made a shift south and focuses some wet snow on the area from HWY 30 north.

The GEM. The GEM remains further north, centered on HWY 20.

If you are into snow, there is another shot Friday, but confidence is low on the track and placement of any snow. If nothing else, colder air will be in place behind the first system, leading to snow as the primary form of precipitation if it catches the area. The GFS is quite aggressive, while the EURO shoves the whole storm south of the region. A full on miss. Take a look.


The GFS

The EURO, nothing of the sort.

Both models do bring a healthy blast of cold air Saturday when the GFS has afternoon readings in the mid-teens.

Well, if nothing else, things are going to be much more challenging the next few days. Additionally, that cold air I've been expecting for more than two weeks after the 15th is coming. For how long, is very much up in the air. Hopefully it's more in and out in nature, which is what current trends are indicating. More to come. Meantime, roll weather...TS Additionally with my recent health issues, I very much need to reach my fund-raising goals. To keep things as they are, I'm in humble need of your donation to the site more than ever. If you use it and find value in it, please consider a contribution. Thanks to you who have already helped the cause!

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