LOOKS LIKE FEBRUARY...
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THE FUTURE OF THE SITE DEPENDS ON YOU.
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ABOUT WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT...
While average temperatures are slowly climbing and the days are longer, mid-February can be a time of harsh weather here in the Midwest. Despite that potential, I don't see anything overly tough with a seasonal brand of weather into the weekend. That includes a chance of light snow or flurries Thursday night and a quick stab of cold Friday night and Saturday, nothing we can't handle!
Overnight, a fast moving clipper dumped some significant rains, nearing 3/4 of an inch+ from just north of Cedar Rapids to near Dubuque. Temperatures remained warm enough for mainly rain. A good thing since a band of 6 or more inches of snow would have resulted if temperatures were a few degrees colder. Fortunately, the more impactful snow fell just north of my area in NE Iowa and southern Wisconsin, where several inches of wet snow was indicated. So while the day starts overcast and dreary, precipitation is over and clouds should gradually clear as the morning progresses. That leaves us windy and chilly, with highs 36 north to 43 south. Steady or even falling temperatures are likely in the afternoon.
Behind storm number one, a secondary clipper arrives late Thursday night and very early Friday. Current trends show this disturbance weakening as it drops southeast. It's also fighting dry air, but there appears to be enough lift and cold air for light snow to be the preferred form of precipitation. At this point amounts are shown ranging from a dusting in the northeast to perhaps an inch or so in the southwest.
As for snow accumulations, this is what models are suggesting for amounts Thursday night early Friday. These are not forecasts, just raw model data that forecasts are derived from.
The Euro
The GFS
The HRRR
The GEM
The NBM (National blend of models)
The 3k NAM
The SREF ensembles
Behind this clipper, a decent push of cold air and brisk winds will settle on Friday and Saturday. Highs both days should hold in the low to mid 30s before recovering Sunday into the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south. The entire weekend looks high and dry after any light lingering morning snow moves out Friday morning.
After the weekend, the upper level winds are dominated by NW flow, with the mean trough centered over the Northeast. That's a moisture starved pattern that is not likely to bring much in the way of precipitation the remainder of February. Starting Friday, these are the 10-day precipitation departures for the period ending February 26th. Much of the nation is dominated by high pressure and dry air.
Here's the dry NW flow with the mean trough over the northeast.
Not only is that dry, it keeps the worst of the cold over New England. Locally, we just get glancing blows with some pretty good swings in temperatures. We're on the roller coaster with plenty of up and downs. However, in the end is looks like we get more mild air than cold, and that is evident in the temperature departures for the same 10-day period.
By the way, this is the EURO 500mb jet structure over North America going into March. By then, there's a major flip (or reversal) in the pattern, with a ridge going up over the east and trough out west. If that indeed develops, the deep SW flow will not only bring warmth but moisture as well. That has a real spring look to it.
It would also get March off to a mild start with well above normal temperatures!
The idea I had of one more burst of winter in mid-February and early March is not coming to fruition, and it's time to throw in the towel on much in the way of sustained winter during that period. I think there is just too much in the way of warm ocean water globally. It's darn near impossible to overwhelm it with what cold air exists. Unless something changes later in March, I think we were lucky to get what winter we did back in January. Lesson learned! Roll weather...TS Additionally with my recent health issues, I very much need to reach my fund-raising goals. To keep things as they are, I'm in humble need of your donation to the site more than ever. If you use it and find value in it, please consider a contribution. Thanks to you who have already helped the cause!