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After a 3-day reprieve, the ingredients are coming together for what could be a couple more rounds of heavy rain. This could aggravate existing flooding, create flash flooding, and in some areas, severe weather is even a possibility. This is all contingent on the timing and placement of dynamics, how much rain falls, and where. One of the most critical elements to look for in a heavy rain set-up are PWATs (available water vapor). We've already had multiple occasions this year when water vapor has reached levels of 2.00 to 2.50 inches. All resulted in significant bands of 2-4" rains. Tuesday night, the EURO exceeds even that, with PWAT's as high as 2.80 inches. That's in the top 99th percentile and more than twice what's typical.

Even at 200mb level, the rich plume of tropical moisture is shown advecting into the Midwest around a strong heat dome centered over the SE United States. Significant warm air advection is noted adjacent to the right rear entrance region of the jet as well.

The first wave of rain Tuesday, is occurring ahead of a short wave ejecting out of the Plains. The remnants of these showers and storms will be around Tuesday morning, especially well to the northwest of the Quad Cities. They are likely to be in a weakening phase as the low level jet and instability weakens compared to the overnight hours. That should keep amounts light and confined to the far NW. The majority of my area will see little in the way of rain during the day Tuesday, however this initial wave will bring a substantial increase in moisture.

A more significant round of showers and storms is due to impact most of the region Tuesday afternoon and night. In this situation, forcing will be greater thanks to a slow moving cold front and the presence of a 110 kt jet streak situated on its right entrance region. Chances are high of a heavy rain band developing that could deposit a swath of 1-4 inch rains. For now, the Weather Prediction Center shows all of my area under a slight risk of excessive rains.

Here's the 5-day significant flood risk outlook from WPC.

With area rivers high (and some in major flood already), tomorrow night's set-up needs to be watched, as widespread heavy rains near or north of the region could increase crests. The threat of higher run-off has already increased projected levels on the Mississippi, with lock and dam 15 in Rock Island now expecting a 20.0' crest around July 7th. If heavier rain is realized, and more falls from a secondary system around the 4th of July, that number could increase. The all-time crest at LD15 is 22.7. The projection for LD15 as of Monday night

Given the convective nature of the rains, as well as the amount of synoptic ascent and moisture, flash flooding is also a concern as any strong updrafts could easily drop an inch or two of rain in a short period, especially if training occurs or an MCS develops. Soils are quite saturated in many parts of the area. If the threat continues Tuesday, the NWS may issue a flash flood watch for some locations.

One final consideration for Tuesday afternoon or evening is the possibility of some severe weather. The degree of instability that develops will drive the threat. The highest CAPE is shown extending from EC Iowa back into the SE part of the state, indicating the best instability for stronger storms is focused there.

The Storm Prediction Center does have an enhanced level 3 risk of severe weather covering parts of SC and SE Iowa. Level 2 gets into much of eastern Iowa and a bit of WC Illinois. There is a small conditional tornado threat, but wind is most likely to be the greatest offender. Tuesday's temperatures should range from the low 80s north to the lower 90s far south.

By daybreak Wednesday, this rain episode is over, which means a short break is in order during the day. Under partly cloudy skies, highs should peak in the 80s. It remains muggy.

The front, which exited the region Wednesday morning, returns north as a warm front Thursday (the 4th of July). Deep moisture lurking just to the south makes another northward surge lifting into the region Thursday afternoon. The strong warm advection driven by PWAT's of 2 inches provides the lift for additional showers and thunderstorms at some point in the day Thursday or Thursday night. Current trends show only scattered development during the day, and if we are lucky that may hold into the evening. However, at some point greater coverage of showers and storms is expected Thursday evening. Depending on the location of the front and mesocale details yet unknown, additional heavy rains are possible. However, confidence at this time is low regarding the timing of where any additional rains of consequence might occur (if they do at all). This part of the forecast is very fluid and for the most part, the 4th looks seasonally warm and muggy, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Rain chances increase towards evening.

Despite the passage of a cold front that ends rain chances late Thursday night, the forecast looks unsettled even into the weekend thanks to an upper level low that closes off over Minnesota. The cold air aloft associated with the upper air low will generate enough instability to produce scattered afternoon and evening showers Friday and Saturday. Both days will see plenty of dry hours before the onslaught of hit-and-miss instability driven showers and storms arrive during peak heating. While spotty, some brief heavy downpours are possible in localized spots. Highs both Friday and Saturday are expected to remain a bit below normal, in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Sunday, high pressure appears strong enough to eliminate most of the instability shower threat. That should produce a partly sunny day with only a few spotty afternoon showers. Temperatures look to fall into the range of 79-83 degrees for highs.

Needless to say, there is a lot of "potential" weather on the table the next few days. The impacts are far from certain and highly contingent on where storms form, which dictates thier abilty to release bands of heavy rain in my local area. Hopefully, the powers that be favor my general region with minimal impacts, something that remains to be seen. Until next time, roll weather...TS


AIRBNB has rated my renovated church in Galena A GUEST FAVORITE, A MOST LOVED home according to visitors. Check out some of our reviews and get in on the flexible deals we have available below.

Christa-Monument, Colorado

The Little White Church is amazing!!!! Pictures do not do it justice. I would absolutely recommend it to my friends and family. It is just so unique. Carolyn is an amazing host and super responsive. I would give our experience 6 out of 5 stars if I could.

Phillip-Queensland, Australia

Amazing and thoughtful renovation. Stayed in a piece of history. Great location and modern amenities. Would stay again!


The Little White Church is beautiful. The decorations are perfect, and it was redone with impeccable taste. Carolyn was a great host.


Such a gem. Relaxing in the countryside in a historic church that was beautifully decorated and recently renovated was exactly what we experienced. Everyone loved our stay, and we will be back!!!


Beautiful and unique. We were all captivated by the adorable chapel turned AIRBNB

Jenny-Frisco, Texas

It was a magical place for our family to celebrate Christmas!


What a gem! The Little White Church exceeded our expectations. It was the perfect spot to meet up with another couple to relax and explore nearby Galena. We enjoyed the beautiful great room with its fireplace and amazing views of the rolling countryside. (The photos simply can't do it justice). The charming church/home was quiet, well appointed and clean. And Carolyn was proactive with instructions and a terrific communicator. We will definitely be back!


Absolutely incredible! Loved the tranquility and the beautiful views. The decor was so inviting. AND the bell tower works!! Would 100% stay here again!

Tori-Cedar Falls

This place is so beautiful! Carolyn and Terry were so thoughtful and kind to let us have our wedding at the church. They even provided extra supplies in case we needed them. The private garden worked perfectly for our ceremony, and the backyard easily fit our reception needs. Not to mention, the balconies make perfect photo spots! My husband and I recommend the Little White Church and will be telling all our friends about it.

Mahesh-Buffalo Grove

Carolyn was a great host, very flexible! The place is super clean, spacious with a private backyard overlooking the fields and bluffs! We spent a lot of time on the deck. Great kitchen, clean bedrooms and baths. Highly recommend the place.


Great place. Great host. Will definitely book again and tell our friends.


Carolyn and Terry's place is BEAUTIFUL! The Little White Church is a wonderful place, way more beautiful than the pictures. Everything is brand new and extremely clean. Staying at the church was a unique experience and I would love to come back soon. I strongly recommend the place if you are looking for a 5-star location!


Carolyn was great! Absolutely beautiful place! I would not hesitate to go back. We spent Thanksgiving and the next night. Very well stocked and above and beyond with extras included. Thank you!


What about pricing? Right now, we are able to offer you our best pricing ever. We have 3 nights for the price of 2 which, depending on the days, can save as much as $300-$400 dollars. If you book directly through us, you can also eliminate booking fees and taxes that the big chains charge. Cleaning fees are also drastically reduced. It all adds up to exceptional deals at a destination worth visiting. Let us assist in finding a time and price that works for you. Here's a link to some pictures.

Carolyn and I will do all we can to make sure your stay is a memorable one. Please call or text Carolyn for more details and options and get a prime date while they are still available. Again, that's Carolyn at 563-676-3320. Or

Now that it's vacation season, there is no better place to visit than Galena and no better place to stay than my newly renovated AIRBNB, the Little White Church. We are located in the bluffs, just 5 miles from the 2nd largest tourism destination in Illinois. In fact, "Tourist Destination", rated Galena as the 2023 top place to visit in the entire Midwest.

Now is the best time to enjoy all there is to offer, and my 5-star AIRBNB is the perfect location to stay. Set in the rolling hills just outside of town, our completely renovated church is designed for you to unwind and relax.

Again, we are an AIRBNB Super host and can accommodate up to 8 guests. We've got cable, hi-speed WIFI, Sirius XM and a sparkling full kitchen. We are a home away from home and take great pride in cleanliness and comfort. All of our ratings have attained perfect 5-star status!

Hope to see you soon,

Terry and Carolyn


1. It’s Steeped In History

2. It’s Home To One Of The Best Main Streets In America

3. The Restaurants Are Amazing

4. There’s A Lot To Do Outdoors

5. You Don’t Have To Travel To The Mountains To Go Skiing

6. It’s A Great Place To Spend The Fourth Of July

7. Did I Mention The Shopping?


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