MOVING IN A WARMER DIRECTION

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We just got over a prolonged stretch of temperatures sitting below freezing. A reward for that cold stretch? The pattern is starting to flip to a warmer regime that may also be a little more active as well. This is something we have mentioned quite a bit in recent days with the teleconnections confirming a pattern flip brewing. Latest analogs (above) have a high change (80%+) of above-normal temperatures taking over the eastern two-thirds of the US bringing in some warmer temperatures.

Five-day ensemble guidance shows a major plume of five-day above-normal temperatures really taking over late this week into next weekend. A rather large ridge is projected to take over the pattern, and that transition process will likely open a window for a little bit more active weather for the region.

As the ridge builds in Thursday/Friday we will have a period of northwest flow. This will set up a storm track over the area that could bring a chance for some wintry mix or snow as temperatures will likely just be borderline enough to warrant it. That northwest flow will transition to southwesterly flow aloft as the ridge builds in bringing with it warming temperatures.

The European Ensemble mean has increasing confidence of some active weather locally in this same time frame (Thursday/Friday) so the precipitation forecast is matching the overall synoptic-scale. This would likely be in the form of a clipper system, so the same rules apply with most clippers. They tend to have limited moisture supply, they are rather low-confidence events and they can move around quite a bit in the day leading up to it. For now, at least, this looks like a pretty good show of some precipitation at least.

THE GFS

THE EURO

Both global models, the GFS and the Euro, indicate this clipper system in the region. The GFS is a little more robust with it than the Euro, although for what it is worth, the GFS actually seems to match the general output of the European Ensemble forecast better. This might be a rare instance as of late in which I think the GFS might have a better handle on the system. We'll see if that continues.

The European Ensemble shows a path of snow, potentially around 2-3", with this late-week clipper system. Not much but at least it's something to pad some of the rather weak winter snowfall stats. A good trend to see some snow before the warmer temperatures build back in.

Looking at the temperature outlook over the next 10 days shows the trend clearly with warming temperatures heading into early next week. A little taste of early spring!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart