MULTI-FACETED LATE WINTER STORM

A SINCERE AND HOPEFUL MESSAGE

Friends and lovers of weather, it's imperative that you know I must reach my financial goal or it's time for me to hang it up after 50 years. I'm doing the best I can here to win your support, and rest assured there is no pleasure in asking for money. I get that its hard times and that's why I'm doing all I can to keep TSwails a no pay site. No matter what, I'm here through December, but the 14th year beyond is dependant on you. If you can help my cause, I'm making a humble plea for anything you can swing, it all adds up. Im $2,790 dollars (or 84% from my goal). Last but not least, I earnestly thank the 307 amazing individuals who have made such gracious contributions. You are all true treasures! Roll weather...TS

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A LATE WINTER STORM WITH LOTS OF VARIETY

A rapidly developing storm will impact the area later today into Friday morning with scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, some with the potential for hail in the southeast. Rain transitions to snow in the NW by midnight and could become heavy for a time. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect that could in a narrow band be upraded to warning status in the far northwest.

This mornings data does indicate a slight nudge NW on the track with the EURO and GFS now in good agreement that the center of circulation goes over the Quad Cities. That 30 mile shift is not much but it will mean the majority of the warning criteria snow stays just NW of my area. At midnight, the low is shown on top of the Quad Cities below.

At that time (midnight) snow is shown falling over much of Iowa, with the rain snow line advancing towards my NW counties. Otherwise, rain is indicated as the primary precipitation type from EC Iowa into Illinois. Much of the rain will be over by mid-evening from SE Iowa into WC Illinois as the dry slot cuts of moisture near and SE of the lows track.

The more substantial precipitation totals as expected to be northwest of the center of circulation in what's known as the deformation band. The more northwesterly track has backed the 1 inch amounts out of my NW counties into NE Iowa. That is a disappointment as totals are back down into the 1/4 to 1/2 inch range west of the Mississippi thanks to that subtle shift.

It also lowers snow amounts in the NW. Last nights run had 12" near Dubuque, now that heavy axis is shown from Marshalltown and Independence to Prairie Du Chien. Heavy snow warnings could be issued for my far NW counties near HWY 20 north, including cities like Waterloo, Independence, as far east as Manchester.

Rain will change to snow in my NW counties around midnight with 2-4, possibly 5 inch amounts possible NW of a line from Cedar Rapids to just east of Dubuque where the snow last until early Friday morning. It will also be accompanied by winds of up to 30 mph.

Here's some of the latest snow guidance. This is just raw model output, what forecasts are derived from.

The HRRR

The 3k NAM

The GFS

The EURO

The official NWS forecast model

There is a chance that scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon or evening could produce some hail in SE Iowa and WC Illinois. There is repectable shear for updraft development and rotation but deep moisture is lacking. That should keeps storms from rooting to the boundary layer. The elevated nature suggests hail would be possible in the stronger cells. SPC does have a marginal 1 risk for strong storms SE of the Quad Cities. An enehanced risk of severe weather (level 3) is our for EC Illinois ans southern Indiana where some tornadoes are possible.

The storm is rapidly coming together now with rain expected to blossom by late afternoon. It will spread across the region by early evening as the system approaches. That's where things currently stand. Roll weather...TS

ON A SERIOUS NOTE, IF I CAN'T MEET MY FINANCIAL GOALS, THIS WILL BE THE LAST YEAR OF THE SITE. IF YOU LIKE THE CONTENT, THE FUTURE IS UP TO YOU. T.S. 84% to my goal.

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