NICE, BUT NOT FOR LONG

terryswails1
2 days ago
4 min read

Some fine weather returned to the region Wednesday thanks to a passing ridge of high pressure. Temperatures and humidity were seasonal, and skies were mostly sunny. One of our better efforts in recent times. I took the garbage bins out Wednesday evening and the cicadas were singing their hearts out. It got me to thinking how fast summer is fading. 2 more weeks and school is in session and football season is underway. It won't be long before the nights get a little frisky.

This handy dandy chart shows the average date in the Quad Cities for low temperatures to reach specific thresholds of 50, 45, 40, and 32 degrees. The average first 50 or lower is August 22nd. 44 is typically met by September 12th and 40 is acquired around September 28th. The average date of the first 32 is October 14th. If you're counting and the norms hold, we have a 50/50 chance of experience the first freeze in 61 days. It's a few days earlier in the north and several days later in the south.

We've got one more day of pleasant weather coming Thursday thanks to light easterly winds. Highs should fall into the range of 80 north to 85 south. It will be a bright and beautiful August day.

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THE DOG DAYS RETURN THIS WEEKEND...

Friday models are all in good agreement that an upper level ridge (heat dome) amplifies over the Midwest. On its north flank, an active wave train sets up along what should be a nearly stationary front over Minnesota and Wisconsin. This will be the breeding ground for occasional thunderstorm complexes that are likely to produce heavy rain. At this point, any convection should avoid my area through Saturday. Sunday afternoon or night, there are mixed signals regarding some of the storm clusters diving south into at least my northern counties as outflow boundaries allow some southward penetration. The EURO has been most bullish on the potential and carries some of it into Monday night, perhaps early Tuesday. The GFS is far less excited about prospects, and essentially keep the stationary front and rain further north.

This discrepancy makes for a tough rainfall forecast, especially this far out when defining forcing is nearly impossible. If storm clusters get going in Minnesota and Wisconsin, which should be the case particularly later in the weekend, I could very well see the EURO's idea of more activity verifying further south thanks to outflow generated cold pools. However, if storm development is more scattered limiting MCS development, the GFS has merit. For now, I'm leaning more towards the EURO. Even so, I still think the really excessive totals of 3–5 inches remains just north of my local area.

Here's what models are suggesting for rain. There is plenty of it in Minnesota and Wisconsin. That would be problematic if it finds a way to build further south. As I mentioned, the EURO is substantially further south with heavier rains beginning late Sunday into Monday night, as shown below.

The EURO

The GFS

Whatever happens, temperatures and humidity are going to spike once again. Highs increase to 85-90 Friday, then build to the low 90s Saturday and Sunday. Water vapor by Sunday afternoon is back up around 2.00 inches as it pools over my northern counties.

That's always a harbinger of heavy rain potential as well as muggy conditions. With dew points in the mid 70s, rest assured we are back in the throes of sultry weather. Heat index values as early as Saturday are up around 102-108 on the GFS. Sunday looks comparable and Monday could be a burner too, particularly in the south.

With the passage of a front Tuesday, rain chances will come to an end and moderately cooler, drier air makes a run at the region the middle of next week.

Roughly 2 weeks from now, the EURO shows a fairly stout buckle in the jet that could bring some fall like air into the NC part of the nation.

Take a look at the below normal temperature departures for August 27th.

As currently depicted, that could lead to lows deep into the 50s, which is about the average time I showed you earlier in the post for readings to hit 50 or below.