NORTHERN LIGHTS TO PUT ON A SHOW

An active weather pattern looks to take over the Upper Midwest this week, but in the short term, it's space weather that may steal the show following a powerful solar flare on Friday. The Northern Lights may be visible, pending some remaining smoke issues, across the Great Lakes and Midwest region.

When analyzing the potential for the Northern Light, the strength, duration and location of the flare are critical. In the imagery above you can see the brightening of the sun near the center, which is an indication of an event coming towards the Earth. Also notice the brightening is rather long duration. All of this right off the bat tells us the probabilities of impacts to Earth are high.

Now that we know a solar flare occurred, how do we know where it's going and when it might arrive? The best tool in the toolbox is an instrument called a coronagraph. This instrument creates an artificial eclipse. It puts an object in front of the sun, blocking it out, allowing us to see the large plume of plasma and magnetic field erupting from the sun. This blob we call a coronal mass ejection, or CME. Based on the imagery above captured by LASCO, we know it's leaving the sun quickly (over 1300 km/s) and it's headed towards Earth. We can tell the direction based on the fact it is a "full halo" eruption, or you can see the plume going in all directions from the center. Like a train coming at you down the tracks, when it's getting larger and larger, you know it's headed your way.

Much like weather models that forecast rain or snow, we also have space weather models that try and predict solar storms that could bring the northern lights. Based on the data we currently have, it appears most likely the solar storm will impact the planet late-morning Sunday, and it will hit hard with speeds still near 1,000km/s. This would bring a rather powerful solar storm sending the Northern Lights as far south roughly a line from northern California to northern Alabama. Thus, a Level 4 of 5 storm, a G4 Geomagnetic Storm Watch, is in effect for Sunday and Monday. Barring some complications, the lights may be visible as early as Saturday night, and possibly still Sunday night.

The solar storm impacted Earth rather early, prior to 1 a.m. Sunday morning and already triggered G4/KP8 conditions according to the Space Weather Prediction Center. Depending on the strength and duration of the event, it's possible it may linger into Sunday night, but the strongest conditions may have passed by Sunday night.

UPDATE SUNDAY MORNING...It appears the flare arrived on earth much earlier than anticipated Saturday night. As a result, the coronal mass ejection will be in a weakening phase as it speeds by. That means chances of seeing a significant event Sunday night have decreased. It's not a 100 percent no, but far more likely it's a no show tonight than a full on event. Just like so many things in life, it's all about timing. TS

The last few years we have had some stellar shows across the Midwest. May 10, 2024 (pictured above) was one of the most powerful on record. We had many other events like March 23 and April 23, 2023. October 10, 2024 was another recent major event. Sunday night's event could be on par with some of these.

CONFIDENCE: Medium to high

TIMING: As early as Saturday night, potentially Sunday night

AREA: Roughly a line northern California to northern Alabama

I ALWAYS SAY IT - PREPARE FOR DISSAPOINTMENT

These events are notoriously difficult to forecast and a wrong magnetic orientation could mean nothing will be seen. However, based on all data we currently have, things are looking rather good. They can bust often, but when they do pan out they are typically unforgettable.

WHAT TO DO: Get away from city lights and look north. Let your eyes adjust to the darkness. Don't constantly look at your phone! The northern lights may not be visible the entire time but will go through waves, or substorms, where the intensity peaks.

We will be hoping for the best! I will be out in the Central Plains wrapping up my storm chasing trip with a night we are actually hoping the skies remain clear instead of filled with storms.

Smoke could be a problem when it comes to viewing the lights. Rather thick wildfire smoke from Canada will continue to linger over the region Sunday into Monday leading to reduced air quality and hazy skies. This will likely limit the viewing of the Northern Lights somewhat, but to what degree is rather difficult to say for certain given both of these events are somewhat rare in their own right, let alone overlapping.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP

Seven-day precipitation shows a rather active weather pattern over the next week over the central US. Widespread rain totals of 2-3" are probable with a series of disturbances the first coming Tuesday and another lingering later in the week.

THE EURO

THE GFS

Our first storm system appears to arrive Tuesday with strong upper-level support, an abundant supply of moisture and rather modest instability. The global models are all in good agreement with the timing and area that might see thunderstorms with heavy rain.

The Storm Prediction Center already has a Level 2 of 5 risk, a Sligh Risk, in place from Wisconsin through the Southern Plains including the Q.C. area. This appears to be the first in what could be a series of days that pose a risk for strong storms in the region, although confidence after Tuesday drops dramatically, so we'll have to keep an eye on those trends going forward.

That's it for now! For those heading out to try their luck with the lights, have a safe trip and don't forget the bug spray. Have a great rest of the weekend,

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart