- Aug 31, 2021

NOTHING LEFT IN THE TANK...

The new week got off to a spectacular start with sunshine, low humidity, and seasonal highs in the low to mid 80s. That's in stark contrast to last week when steamy and in some areas stormy conditions prevailed. In fact, some part of my area had rain on all seven days days from last Monday to the Sunday just past.

Over the 7 day period some really impressive rain numbers were put up across northern Iowa where amounts greater than 10 inches were measured. Unfortunately, much of EC Iowa and northern Illinois, a rain deprived area the past couple of months came up on the short end of the rain gauge with amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch. SE Iowa which has had plenty of rain this summer was one of the driest locations with totals of 1/4 inch or less.

For the week ending the 29th, rain across northern Iowa was 5-7 times the mean. Over SE Iowa and NC Illinois totals were only 25-50 percent of the mean. Talk about feast or famine!

I also thought this was interesting from the Iowa Mesonet. The graphic shows how places in NC Iowa have accumulated more than 15 inches of rain since August 1st. As little has 150 miles away amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch were found. Talk about a significant difference!

One of those dry areas the past month has been the Quad Cities. For August just 1.40 inches of rain was reported in Moline. The interesting thing is that most of that fell in 2 days (the 24th-25th) when 1.09 inches came down. You take that our of the equation and you don't have much in the bucket. My grass is toast and the ground is hard as a rock.

As dry as it is in EC Iowa, here's something that's rather intriguing. It's a flood warning for the Wapsipinicon River in Scott and Clinton counties. Today the river in De Witt was at 5.7 feet. I drove over the bridge on 67 north Sunday near Princeton and there were places where you could probably walk across with ease. The dry conditions were producing very low stream flows. Despite little rain falling in the area, the huge amounts upstream near the headwaters is expected to produce a wall of water and a dramatic rise Tuesday. By next Monday the river is projected to be at major flood stage near De Witt with levels up to 13.5 feet. That's a big number for that river and specific location. In fact, it's not far from the all-time record of 14.3 feet set back in July of 2014.

It's also interesting to note that 7 of the top 10 crests in De Witt have all occurred since 2013. What does that tell you?

Even the Mississippi is expected to see rises. Here in Le Claire where I live it's expected to go from a meager 4.5' stage last Friday to 7.5 feet Wednesday. Interesting.

I don't see much that leads me to believe the next 6-10 days will be active in my part of the central Midwest as I think we've drained the tank. There is a nice disturbance that will cut across the SW half of Iowa Monday night but the trajectory should drive it S/SE keeping the rains off the west. Another system streaks across the upper Midwest Friday but the forcing is weak and moisture is limited . With the best upper air support to the north nothing more than some scattered light showers is currently indicated by the EURO. The GFS though is far more aggressive despite showing similar timing and forcing. I am leery of what the GFS is depicting so for now I'm leaning strongly towards the EURO. Here's the rainfall forecast for both models through noon Sunday.

The EURO

The GFS

Here's the WPC blend which looks much more like the EURO in my region.

As for temperatures this week, I see nothing like the heat and humidity we battled most of last week. Here's the NDFD model blend for readings through Monday which I think looks reasonable.

By the way, this being the last day of meteorological summer, I am starting to focus on the fall and winter ahead. For you white gold lovers here's a tasty nugget. I just looked at the latest EURO weeklies which go our 46 days. Towards mid October the upper air pattern at 500mb shows a big ridge over the Pacific NW and a surge of cold air diving into the Midwest. I think that ridge is going to be a factor this winter and we may see plenty of this type of upper air alignment. I think winter has a chance of getting out of the gate fast in November and I like the idea of a cold and potentially snowy December.

Speaking of snow, the control of the weeklies shows some all the way into central Wisconsin by October 15th. That's nothing I would bet on but my snowy mind likes the trend!