ONE DOWN, ANOTHER TO GO...
Another spring storm has come and gone. In its wake, another good rain accumulated over much of my region. As you can see in the Doppler estimates, the area just NW of the Quad Cities picked up the largest totals of 1 to 1.25 inches. There was a heavier band that ran from Belle Plaine to the north side of Cedar Rapids on into NW Illinois where Preston, Iowa knocked off 1.7 inches and DeWitt managed a total 1.4 inches.
Under the clouds with occasional rain and northeast winds, temperatures were plenty chilly. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s ended up being a good 17-18 degrees below normal.
Behind the system drier air has arrived bringing mostly clear skies Wednesday morning. You can see the dry air nicely in yellow on this GOES hi-res satellite imagery late Tuesday evening.
Unfortunately, clouds are already spilling into the Plains heralding the arrival of another storm system Thursday. After morning sunshine Wednesday, clouds will be on the increase later in the day as the system makes its move into the central Midwest. With the additional solar radiation highs will improve over yesterday's readings with most spots reaching 60-64 degrees. That's a big improvement on overnight lows which Wednesday morning could be down in the low 30s in my northern counties. Some patchy frost is possible with the GFS showing temperatures that look like this.
Thursday the next storm shows it's hand with another round of occasional showers that could linger into Friday. This is another one of those cut-off lows (bowling balls) that are known for their slow movement. Here's what the energy looks like at 500mb Friday. That's the recipe for another round of cool damp weather (sigh).
Rainfall should again be generous in many areas. The EURO indicate amounts like this Thursday-Friday.
WPC is further south on the heavier rain over the same period.
The GFS is even further south on the heavier rains.
I prefer the more northerly position of the heavier rains and as such am leaning more towards the EURO.
Temperatures with the system appear to be below normal (again) with highs in the 50s Thursday. After that we have a fight Friday with the EURO getting highs in the southeast into the range of 65 to 70. (the north remains in the 50s). The GFS is much cooler with upper 50s to low 60s areawide. Here's the discrepancies between the two. It's almost a flip flop.
The EURO Friday.
For now I can't say which solution will verify Friday but for now I like a middle ground solution. After Friday the rest of the weekend looks pleasant with a gradual warning trend from 60-65 Saturday to 65-70 Sunday.
A TASTE OF SUMMER
For those of you following along, yesterday I mentioned the EURO was pushing a major warm-up next week promising several days with highs in the 80s. The GFS had one day of it before turning decidedly cooler the remainder of the week. I was hesitant to get too much behind the EURO's warmth considering the struggle we've had heating up this spring. I also know that many of you are anxiously awaiting the warmer weather and I did not want to oversell the potential. Today however the GFS has left the dark side and embraced the thermally warm force of the EURO. Here's the meteograms of both models showing a summery surge next week. My confidence has grown substantially and I'm thinking the EURO has the right idea...maybe a bit too warm but still very summery. Feast your eyes on these temperatures.
The EURO ( What a week it shows!)
The GFS (Not as toasty but still a sight to see).
Hopefully we are about to break the back of this awful spring. Certainly there are some reasons to be optimistic. Have a sensational day and as I always say, roll weather...TS