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OUT WITH THE RAIN...

Chilly weather in the 40s prevailed around the region Tuesday, a stark change from the 80 degree warmth of Saturday. Conditions were even worse in my counties near and east of the Mississippi where rain combined with the cold to add insult to injury. Despite the fact it was a lousy day, it was worth enduring as desperately needed moisture was added to our soils. Over the past 48 hours, here's the Doppler estimates of rainfall (with rain still falling in the east). Widespread 1/2 to 1 inch totals were common with some spots more in the 1.5 to 2 inch rain. Yea for that!

This will no doubt take at least a bite out of drought which has been expanding over the central Midwest the past few months. Before the rain, the latest drought monitor looked like this.

As you can see in the broader view of Doppler estimates, many places around the Midwest got in on a soaker. It will be interesting to see how it effects next weeks drought monitor in a positive way.

As you can see in the late day Satellite Tuesday, the storm center was situated in SE Illinois heading east. Already drier air on the backside of the storm is clearing skies over western Iowa. As that pushes east, sunshine will spread across the region Wednesday morning and we will have ourselves a much better day with highs back in the mid to upper 50s.

After that the storm track transitions to a zonal flow over the weekend and back into SW flow early next week. That promises to bring fine uneventful weather. This animation shows Tuesday's system lifting out and the transition of the 500mb jet to its new configuration next week.

That will provide the central Midwest with another fine weekend with a warming trend that by next Wednesday could have highs back around 70. I like it. Here's the temperature departures for the next 7 days

Here's the 7 day precipitation ending Wednesday of next week.

These are the associated departures.

As far as cold air is concerned, it appears another strong trough arrives around November 4th with a decent shot of cool air. The 500mb pattern goes into this configuration on the EURO allowing the cold to plunge into the Plains.

How far the trough digs into the Midwest will determine how cold we get. By Monday the 7th temperatures are shown 10-15 degrees below normal.

That produces highs only in the mid 30s Sunday November 6th.

Lows the next morning are down in the low to mid 20s.

The EURO even lays down some snow from NW Iowa into Minnesota and Wisconsin but there is no tendency for any of that to reach our area despite plenty of cold air.

It's a little early too get into the details of this set-up since we're out more than a week which keeps confidence on this trend low to moderate. However, both the GFS and EURO show the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation) going into phase 7, which in November correlates strongly to cold. As such, I think the EURO's idea of a colder pattern at that time has merit.

Well, I guess that's all for now. We've got our lousy weather behind us and can look forward to better days ahead. Until next time, roll weather...TS

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