POTENT STORMS MONDAY...

A weak mid-summer cool front may bring some storms to my southern counties Sunday evening, especially along and south of HWY 30. Meantime, predominantly dry weather prevails across the rest of my area. The front itself has already brought some relief to my northern counties around HWY 20 in the form of cooler temperatures and lower humidity levels. Highs there remained below 90 for the first time in 6 days and dew points slipped out of the 70s into the mid 60s. At 4:00pm Sunday the dew point in Dubuque was 66 with a temperature of 86, a noticeable improvement with fresh west winds.

The dry air will sink through the rest of the region overnight and dew points Sunday will be down, ranging from the low 60s north to the mid 60s south. Dry, quiet weather will encompass the region once again in northwest flow. Unfortunately, wind trajectories look sufficient to bring wild fire smoke that will produce plenty of haze, some visibility issues, and poor air quality.

ACTIVE STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY

Ahead of our next front Monday, return flow will bring a rapid return of heat and humidity. The 3k NAM pushes dew points into the mid to upper 70s and with highs of 90-94, heat index values could top 100 degrees.

This will drive significant instability with CAPE by Monday afternoon exceeding 4,000 j/kg. from the Quad Cities west.

Along with the deep moisture, upper level winds are strong and support elongated hodographs. SPC has already upgraded it's Monday severe weather outlook to enhanced (level 3 of 5). That's impressive 2 days out.

Nick as always will have an in depth update on the potential in his next post later tonight. I just wanted to get the word out that Monday afternoon or evening carries the risk of strong storms. Roll weather...TS