PUT A FORK IN IT...

They say all good things must come to an end, and so it is with our record-breaking run of warm, dry days. A strong but seasonal front has now made its way south of the area, setting the stage for a more typical brand of October weather the next few days. The thing I will remember about the warmth was the low humidity. While the days were warm, generally 85-90, humidity was a non-factor. I never even turned on my air conditioner, and I didn't suffer a bit with temperatures quickly cooling into the 50s overnight. Diurnal swings of 35 to 40 degrees were common for almost 2 weeks. (You can put a fork in it, it's done).

Here in Dubuque, we just completed the warmest start to October since 1873. The average temperature, the first 6 days of the month, was 75.50 degrees. That crushed the previous record of 71.08 set in 2005. These warm Octobers are part of a trend in recent years. 3 of the top 9 warmest on record have occurred since 2021, including 2023, and 2025. These observations were taken at the Dubuque Lock-and-Dam.

For the same 6-day start to October in Moline, the average temperature of 72.08 was good enough for 4th warmest. Records go back to 1871.

Just to refresh your memory, Monday was the 12th consecutive day with highs of 80 or above at the NWS office in the Quad Cities going back to the 25th of September.

Moline also accomplished the same feat and that is the first time in its history 12 consecutive 80 degree days have occurred this late in the season. Up until now, the frequency of such an event was zero percent this late in the year.

Most areas also saw some beneficial rain over the past 24 hours, but amounts varied significantly from one part of the area to another. Amounts are still being assessed as rain fell overnight and is in the process of moving out of my SE counties early Tuesday. I'll have an update on who got what in my next blog.

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WETTER AND COOLER TIMES AHEAD....

Going forward, we actually revert quickly backwards to our dry ways, with the next chance of rain not likely until Sunday night or Monday of next week. Hopefully you were one of the lucky ones to get a soaking rain because the next 6 days should be void of precipitation.

Temperatures will also trend up again by the weekend, but not before we all get a taste of 60s for highs Tuesday through Thursday, perhaps even Friday. Actually, that's nothing to complain about, as it's pretty close to normal. With partly sunny skies, highs this weekend should punch into the 70s, and it's possible more 80s are on the table next week. Here's what the EURO is indicating for temperatures the next 2 weeks.

You probably noted the cool-down that's indicated around the 17th of October. I mentioned the trend was well teleconnected last week, and Nick also reinforced the idea in his weekend posts. Today the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation), the AO (Arctic Oscillation), EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) PNA (Pacific North America), and the NAO, North Atlantic Oscillation), are all forecast to be in phases around that time that are associated with a strong east based trough.

AO

The EPO

The PNA

THE NAO

The MJO is forecast to cycle into phase 1 at that time as well, and the phase 1 analog with a La Niña in October correlates to a trough that look similar to this.

The deterministic runs of the EURO and GFS are resembling that look. Here's the EURO the 18th

The GFS the 19th.

Such a pattern would usher in windy, colder weather somewhere around October 18-20th. The GFS shows some healthy temperature departures around that time. Confidence continues to grow that we could get our first taste of highs in the 50s later in the 3rd week of this month. It could also lead to our first frost with lows close to 32, which normally comes around the 15th.

The upper Midwest could even see its first snow by the 21st if the GFS is right. Not something I would bet on at this distance.

Suffice it to say, we get back into a quiet but cooler pattern later Tuesday that lasts through the rest of the week. After that, things should turn more interesting and hopefully wetter. That's all for now. Roll weather...TS